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| Gio Gonzalez owns a 12-5 record with a 2.39 ERA for the 2017 season. |
On August 20th, Washington Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez notched his twelfth win of the year in the Nationals 4-1 victory over the San Diego Padres. While the overall stat line was fairly typical for the left handed starter this season: 6.1 innings pitched, 1 run allowed (unearned), 8 strikeouts vs. 1 walk, 121 total pitches (74 for strikes), Sunday's game marked the twenty-first outing of the season in which Gio had pitched at least six innings. It's a feat that Gonzalez only managed to accomplish eighteen times a year ago. Indeed, the lefty starter is in the midst of one of his best seasons to date as he currently owns a 12-5 record with a 2.39 ERA which ranks third in all of baseball. Gio's accomplishments thus far in the 2017 season are especially surprising given his performance during the 2016 season and an off-season in which many National's fans were clamoring for the front office to trade the lefty from Hialeah, Florida.
Since Gio Gonzalez's third place finish in the 2012 NL Cy Young voting, the lefty has statistically regressed virtually every season with him bottoming out in 2016 to the tune of a 11-11 record amd a 4.56 ERA. While he was far from the worst pitcher in the league, the expectations for the lefty are much higher than a 0.8 WAR (wins above replacement). Essentially, the Washington Nationals could've plucked a player from their AAA squad, replaced Gio Gonzalez with said player, and the results really wouldn't have been that much different. While this number is not indicative of who Gio is as a pitcher nor does it reflect his track record, you can't really argue that he just wasn't very good last season. The lefty's statistics for his pre-2017 Nationals career are as follows:
2012: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 199.1 innings, 207 K's, 76 BB, .206 avg., 1.13 WHIP
2013: 11-8, 3.36 ERA, 195.2 innings, 192 K's, 76 BB, .231 avg., 1.25 WHIP
2014: 10-10, 3.57 ERA, 158.2 innings, 162 K's, 56 BB, .230 avg., 1.20 WHIP
2015: 11-8, 3.79 ERA, 175.2 innings, 169 K's, 69 BB, .269 avg., 1.42 WHIP
2016: 11-11, 4.56 ERA, 177.1 innings, 171 K's, 59 BB, .262 avg., 1.34 WHIP
A few things jump out upon glancing quickly at these statistics. Subtracting out the 21 victories he notched during the 2012 season, Gio has a record of 43-37 as a Washington National. Not horrible, but also not what you imagine when you're dishing out nearly ten million dollars a year. As we examine the stats, we see that perhaps the win numbers of Gio's 2012 season may have been inflated by the fact that his team scored an average of 6.68 runs per game when he took the mound. With nearly seven runs of support per outing, it begins to make sense as to how he racked up 21 victories that season. That being said, the sabremetrics of that season lend credence that it was truly a special season. Gio's .206 opponent batting average wasn't a fluke due to an abnormally low average on balls in play; opponents hit .271 on balls that they put into the field of play which isn't that far off the expected average of .290-.310 for major league hitters. Gonzalez did an excellent job keeping the ball in the park that year by notching a career low 0.41 HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings). By combining the second highest strikeout rate (9.35 K/9) and registering one of the lowest walk rates (3.43 BB/9) of his career, Gio was able to put together one of the better seasons for a Washington National pitcher in the history of the franchise (not named Max Scherzer).
However, things began to take a turn after that fantastic '12 season. In particular, I'd like to focus on the '15 and '16 seasons as there are a few explanations for some of the statistical drop off during the '13 and '14 seasons. Gio's 2013 season was relatively comparable to his 2012 season. His pedestrian 11-8 record could be chalked up to the fact that his run support per start dropped nearly two runs per game from 6.68 in '12 to 5.01 in '13. Given similar run support to what he had the previous year and we probably would've seen Gio rack up between 15-16 wins during that encore season. Gio's '14 season was shortened due to recurring shoulder problems. However, his 10-10 record is skewed by the fact that his Nationals team provided him only 3.63 runs per game, a number that is nearly 1.5 less than his career average. Simply speaking, the Nationals did not provide Gio with the run support that he needed to emerge victorious. For a team that went 96-66 during the regular season, it is surprising to see that they couldn't muster up more support for the veteran lefty, but sometimes that is just the way things work out. To his credit, Gio posted the second lowest walk rate of his career at 3.18 per nine innings as well as continuing to limit the long ball with a 0.57 HR/9 average. His 9.19 K/9 was the third best rate that he had posted in his career as well. Conceivably, Gio was set to bounce back entering the 2015 season provided he was able to overcome his shoulder woes.
2015 was a strange year for the Nationals lefty. When you look past the 11-8 record and the solid 3.79 ERA, there were some troubling trends lying beneath the rosy surface. Despite tying the highest strike percentage of his career from the previous season at 63.2%, Gio saw an uptick in his walks allowed (from 3.18 in '14 to 3.54 in '15). In short, Gio threw just as many strikes as he did the preceding season, yet he walked more opposing batters. Although Gio once again limited the number of home runs he allowed, he also saw his opponents batting average jump from .230 to .269 and he wasn't exactly giving up soft contact. Of the 181 hits that he allowed during the '15 season, 47 went for extra bases. Given the additional runners that he was putting on base via balls, it makes sense that hard contact for extra-base hits would result in more runs allowed.
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| Gio's struggles in 2016 led many fans to question his place in the franchise's future. |
Gio's '16 season was by far the weakest of his career and it led to many fans turning their backs on the likeable lefty who had blazed his way into their hearts only a few seasons before. Although the lefty started the season with a fantastic month of April that saw him notch a 1.42 ERA, he struggled for much of the remainder of the season, posting ERA's of over 5.00 in three of the season's final five months. Strangely, in an inverse of the 2015 season, Gio's strike percentage dropped two points, from 63.2% to 61.2%, yet he lowered his walk rate by over half a point, from 3.54 BB/9 to 2.99 BB/9. Even though he was throwing less strikes, he was walking less opponents. However, Gio saw his home run totals proverbially soar into the stratosphere as his rate more than doubled from the season before (from 0.41 HR/9 to 0.96 HR/9). The nineteen home runs he allowed were the most he had ever allowed in a single season. Whether you depend on sabremetrics or the eye test, one thing is for certain: Gio Gonzalez did not have a good 2016 season.
As you dig into the numbers, the one that stands out the most about that down season was the fact that Gio found himself falling behind batters far too often. As he was throwing less strikes, he was forced to come into the hitting zone, throwing pitches right over the plate that were easier for opponents to square up and drive. When Gio was able to get ahead in the count, he looked like vintage 2012 Gio Gonzalez as he limited opponents to a .173 batting average and only allowed three home runs. However, Gio fell behind in the count far too often during the season and when he did, bad things tended to happen (as shown by the .323 opponents average). In addition, Gio saw his average fastball velocity continue to drop as it fell to just a tick above ninety miles per hour at 90.8. During the '12 and '13 season, Gio averaged 93.1 and 92.6 respectively for his fastball. Given that Gio had always been primarily a fastball-curveball pitcher, he relied on having a good hard fastball to offset his looping curveball (for his career it has generally traveled between 77-78 MPH). Yet, even as his velocity decreased, Gio did little to adjust his pitch selection and approach. In the statistics listed below, you can see the average velocity of Gio's fastball and the corresponding percentage of use:
2012: 93.1 MPH (70.8%)
2013: 92.6 MPH (68.5%)
2014: 92.0 MPH (65.0%)
2015: 92.0 MPH (65.7%)
2016: 90.8 MPH (64.4%)
From 2014-2016, Gio generally threw his fastball about 65.0% of the time. Ten years ago, Gio's pitch speeds would've probably placed him right in the middle of the pack in terms of velocity among starters (particularly left handed starters). However, in this day and age, a ninety mile per hour fastball does not stand out (the average fastball velocity in the majors is 93.11 MPH) and, unless well located, has come to be seen as "hitting speed" by major leaguers. If you're falling behind in the count and forced to come over the middle of the plate with a 90 MPH fastball, it is going to be hit and it is going to be hit hard. Such had been the case for Gio Gonzalez during that difficult '16 season.
However, Gio has most certainly turned himself around during this 2017 season and he is pitching at a level that we haven't seen him at in nearly five years. While Gio's strikeout rate is actually at the lowest it has ever been at 8.33 K/9, he has also posted a walk rate that is lower than his career average at 3.44 BB/9. His lower walk rate is odd in that he is throwing fewer strikes than he has since 2011 with a strike percentage of 60.4%. Yet, even as he throws fewer strikes, opponents aren't squaring up the ball when they do swing as he's inducing weak contact with an average exit velocity off opponent's bats of 87.47 MPH, two miles per hour slower than the major league average. Essentially, even though opposing batters may be up in the count, they aren't squaring up the ball when they decide to swing. Indeed, with batters up in the count, they're still only hitting .228 off the lefty this year. When Gio finds himself ahead in the count, he has posted what can only be described as "video game numbers" as he's only given up 28 hits for a .170 average. With an average fastball speed just a tick under ninety miles per hour at this point (MLB.com has him averaging 89.98 MPH on his fastball), we must look at Gio's evolution from a flamethrower to the cliché "crafty lefty" that we see today.
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| While he has lost over 3 MPH on his fastball since 2012, Gio seems to be getting better with age like a fine wine. |
This season, Gio has done a much better job mixing his pitches than he has ever before for his entire career. Utilizing his fastball a career low 56.9% of the time, Gio has thrown curveballs nearly a quarter of the time at 24.8% and he has done an excellent job mixing in his change-up as well. Additionally, Gio is beginning to rely more on his sinking fastball than his standard 4-seamer, trading velocity for movement in the process. This evolution from relying on speed to movement and deception with his four pitch mix (fastball, sinker, curveball, and change-up) bodes well for the continued success of Gio Gonzalez moving forwards. Many pitchers struggle to make the transition from hard thrower to soft tosser. Losing velocity forced Gio Gonzalez to make a change to his approach and the results speak for themselves.
Photos are courtesy of mlb.com.
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