As the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline rapidly approaches, those who follow baseball will undoubtedly hear of major league teams being labeled as either "buyers" or "sellers". With the inclusion of a second wild card team, the chances of making a playoff push have increased considerably since the one-game playoff was implemented back in 2012. Since 2000, ten Wild Card teams have made the World Series (with the 2002 Angels, the 2003 Marlins, the 2004 Red Sox, and the 2014 Giants winning the championship). That's a rate of 25%; roughly one out of every four champions have come in the form of a team that wasn't a divisional winner. The saying that the season restarts once you reach the playoffs couldn't be truer in major league baseball.
At this point in time, the American League playoff picture is virtually still wide open as every team is conceivably in the mix. The Chicago White Sox, the team furthest out of a playoff seed and probably the team most likely to be a "seller" (they just traded ace starter, Jose Quintana, today), are 7.5 games behind the New York Yankees for the second wild card spot. Steeper odds have been beaten before (see the 2007 collapse of the New York Mets in which they blew a 6.5 game lead in less than two weeks). While the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies have a 7.5 game lead for the two wild card spots, there are several teams still in the hunt for divisional titles and, as I said earlier, considerable leads have been blown in the past.
Down but most certainly not out.
With that in mind, what do we make of this season's incarnation of the Baltimore Orioles? Living in the Mid-Atlantic region, I've been able to follow the incredible highs and depressing lows of this years team and it truly has been a bizarre season to behold. After starting the season as one of the most impressive teams in the league, going 22-10 in the season's first month and a half, the O's have fallen off considerably since (fallen off is a mild way of saying that they've driven off a cliff and are hurtling faster and faster into the abyss). Since that hot start, they've gone 20-36 and have struggled to stay near .500 due to porous starting pitching (headlined by $50 million mistake Ubaldo Jimenez) and a rash of debilitating injuries to key players such as Chris Tillman and Chris Davis. Is this a team that should be winning games roughly two out of every three times as they did in the season's opening months? Probably not. Then again, they clearly aren't as bad as they have been lately. At the major league level, they have some incredible young talent in the form of position players Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Trey Mancini as well as pitchers Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. These are all-star caliber players who you can build your organization around for years to come. However, the young talent residing in the Orioles' farm system is an entirely different story and that is what brings us to this article's topic.
Due to this uncertainty of what this team qualifies as, one begins to wonder whether or not it would be worth it to jettison some of their major league talent for the allure of blue chip prospects. The Orioles possess one of the league's weakest farm systems (they currently have one player ranked on the top-100 prospects listing, catcher Chance Sisco). The New York Yankees conversely have eight players ranked in the top-100 and the Chicago White Sox lead the way with nine prospects ranked. Seeing as this is a young man's game (this year's Midsummer Classic consisted of twenty-three first time All-Stars), the Orioles might do well to try to build their farm system up. However, this is a team that is a season removed from an 89 win season which didn't speak to their true level of talent and three seasons removed from a 96 season that saw them reach the ALCS with largely the same core. As I said earlier, all it takes is a chance and the Orioles are only 4.0 games out of a playoff spot. A cautionary tale about the dangers of giving up and selling off your major league talent for this year's club lies in the recent past in the form of the 2000 Orioles.
Fan favorite Jonathan Schoop rounds the bases. Will he still be around come July 31st?
The 2000 Orioles were three seasons removed from a 98-64 season that saw
them fall to the Cleveland Indians in the American League Championship
Series in six games. On their way to that series, they had beat the 90-72 Seattle
Mariners, the American League's leader in runs scored and the record
holder for most home runs hit in a single season at 264 (a record that has since been broken). However, the 2000 Oriole club was not playing anywhere near that level and they were 38-48 by the All-Star break. With the trade deadline approaching, the Orioles would trade six players in a matter of three days in exchange for twelve minor league players. Among those traded were Mike Bordick, Charles Johnson, Harold Baines, Will Clark, and B.J. Surhoff, several of whom were part of that 98-64 season. Of the twelve players that the Orioles received, one would go on to have a substantial MLB career in the form of Melvin Mora. We know how the rest of the story goes. Until the 2012 Orioles surprised the baseball world by going 93-69, not one Orioles team would post a winning record in the eleven seasons after that trade. While their attendance numbers maintained themselves for a time, they too began to slip as time went by and the losing seasons began to mount. You can't blame the fans for questioning the team's leadership; when your team deals away fan favorites, you hope to see a payoff from the exchange. Baseball prospects, perhaps more so than any other sport, are an unknown; there is no way to know how a player will develop and whether or not his success at the minor league level will translate to the Show. No player better exemplifies this than former Los Angeles Angels super-prospect Brandon Wood who belted out 100 extra base hits during the 2005 minor league season. Where is he now? Managing the Tri-City Dust Devils in the Class A Northwest League. Nobody knows how prospects will develop and what their futures hold for them.
Erik Davis was one of six players traded in 2000. Who might we see dealt this year?
What then should the Orioles do? Time is rapidly running out for this season as are the contracts of several of their premier players. Will they be able to resign Manny Machado to a long term deal? If not, wouldn't it make sense to jettison him for a bevy of minor league talent, particularly given that he is only signed through the 2017 season? The Orioles have about fifteen days to decide what direction they will take with their franchise. If their starting pitching continues to struggle, the Orioles should look to trade some of their commodities, particularly those in the bullpen. Last year, the Yankees flipped lefty fireman, Andrew Miller, to the Cleveland Indians for Clint Frazier, an athletic outfielder who has the talent to make an impact for years in the majors, and the 2014 Cubs turned Jeff Samardzija into Addison Russell in a trade with the Oakland Athletics. How different might the league look with Russell taking his hacks in the American League and not manning shortstop for the defending world champions (even though he has struggled this season)? What return can the Orioles get for Brad Brach and Zach Britton? If the Orioles continue to under-perform, perhaps we'll find out. If they stay within contention, however, and are only three to four games out by the deadline, expect the Orioles to continue to push for that wild card spot.
After all, all records reset to 0-0 come postseason and anything is possible.
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