No Sure Bet: The Risk in Signing Veteran Relievers to Lucrative Contracts
By: Dan Primiani
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| Former Oakland A's closer Liam Hendriks will be suiting up with the Chicago White Sox in 2021. |
A failed starter during his initial cup of coffee in the league with the Minnesota Twins from 2011-2014, Liam Hendriks has developed into one of the most effective relief pitchers over the past half decade. In particular, Hendriks has been a true stopper over the past two seasons, posting a 1.79 ERA and posting a remarkable 161:24 K-to-BB ratio. Hendriks' HR/9 rate over this stretch of time clocks in at 0.49, essentially equating to one home run every eighteen innings. For a relief pitcher, the ability to limit the long ball and avoid unnecessary baserunners via the walk are two of the most important stats in functioning as a valuable bullpen piece. Hendriks has also proven to be quite durable since his full-time transition to the bullpen in 2015; over the past six seasons, Hendriks has appeared in 305 games and logged 328.1 innings.
By and large, Hendriks' evolution from ineffective starter to standout reliever boils down to his ability to hone his plus pitches (his fastball and wipeout slider) while also being able to go max effort for a limited number of pitches. It's the same formula that helped turned similar pitchers like Luke Hochevar and Brad Hand from subpar, underachiever starters to back-end of the bullpen type players (not to equate Hendriks to some of baseball's true greats, but four of the top ten pitchers on the all-time saves leaderboard began their careers either as struggling starter prospects or found a tremendous amount more success in a relief role). Since transitioning to the 'pen in 2015, Hendriks has seen his fastball velocity jump from 92.3 mph to 96.4 mph. For those outside of baseball, a difference of just about four miles an hour may not sound like much, but, as any hitter who competed in college or professionally will tell you, there is most certainly a difference between 85 and 89 and between 90-94. It may equate to literal milliseconds of a difference at the plate, but that is enough to severely impact any player's ability to hit the ball. Due to his ability to up his fastball velo and challenge hitters more aggressively in and above the strike zone, Liam Hendriks has evolved into one of the top pitchers in the game.
Yet, here's the reality: this is not a good deal for the White Sox. Perhaps in the short term, this deal may yield a season or two of relevance from the soon to be thirty-two year old right hander. Perhaps he helps anchor the White Sox pen in 2021, much like his predecessor in Alex Colome did, and leads them to playoff success. Perhaps. But let's look at the counterargument. It is exceedingly rare that veteran free agent relievers, signed to big money contracts, redeem the value for those deals with the signing club. Just take a look at the top-ten highest paid relievers in the MLB as of this moment:
*Chart courtesy of https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/salary/relief-pitcher/.
Kenley Jansen, the game's highest paid relief pitcher, saw his cut-fastball velocity drop to 90.9 mph in 2020, a precipitous drop from the 92.9 mph it averaged a year earlier. Jansen's effectiveness (or lack thereof) got a point where his manager, Dave Roberts, was forced to pull him from Game 2 of the NLCS this past season mid-inning. Now, while Jansen is only guaranteed one more year at this salary (he'll be a free agent after the 2021 season), look at the third-ranked member of this list, Craig Kimbrel. Kimbrel held out for a contract going into the 2019 season and ultimately didn't sign a deal until June 7th of that season. Upon his return to the mound, Kimbrel has proven to be an utter disaster, posting a combined 6.00 ERA whilst allowing 59 baserunners in only 36.0 innings. Perhaps worst of all is the fact that the Cubs are most likely locked into two more years of this torment (should Kimbrel remain healthy and appear in fifty-five games in the 2021 season, the $16 million option will automatically trigger). Jeurys Familia has dealt with both injury and ineffectiveness over the course of his contract with the Mets. Another arm that is not even on this list (but will most likely be fresh in the minds of all Philadelphians) is former set-up man, David Robertson, whose two-year, $23 million deal yielded a total of 6.2 ineffective innings in which he walked as many batters (6) as he struck out. Rewind almost fifteen years ago and you have the Danys Baez signing with the Baltimore Orioles in 2007, a three-year, $19 million deal that yielded two seasons of 5.02 baseball sandwiched around a 2008 season missed to injury. To quote Kevin McAllister, woof!
This is the risk you run when you sign veteran bullpen arms. But, why is this so? Why is it that big-name relievers, signed to large contracts, often turn up negative results thereafter and post numbers that make them less valuable than replacement-level ballplayers? My gut instinct would be that you don't become a "big game" pitcher overnight; it is the culmination of years of successful and repeated outings. Relief pitchers, having often started out as failed starters, enter the league usually on basement level deals. They transition to reliever, the team uses and abuses their arms like it's going out of style, and discard them as soon as the next fresh arm is available. By the time that a pitcher has achieved enough notoriety or has amassed accolades for his accomplishments to justify a big money signing, there proverbial shelf life is all but used up. Are there aberrations to this reality? Sure, but not every reliever is Mariano Rivera, capable of withstanding year after year of appearing in sixty-plus games. Throwing a baseball isn't a normal physical motion. It's not something that people are capable of doing year after year after year. This is where my concern comes in for Liam Hendriks and the White Sox. Because if history repeats itself (as it is oft to do with professional relief pitchers), we're going to see Liam Hendriks struggling at some point before this contract is up and the White Sox will rue the day they signed the acclaimed pitcher. All of those innings that Hendriks logged in Oakland will eventually catch up to him and, when they do, well: Game over, man!
Images courtesy of espn.com and GIFs courtesy of giphy.com
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