Opinion: Despite How It Looks, the Cubs Will Win the Yu Darvish Trade
By: Joe Kearney-Argow
I know I am a few days late with this post, but I am still seeing a lot of talk about this trade. People seem to be losing their minds about how good the Padres are going to be and I wanted to bring everyone down to earth before we hand them the World Series trophy. I'll preface this by saying that, obviously, if Darvish repeats the season he had last year, the Padres will be looking pretty solid with the deal (I'm not a total idiot). That being said, I believe last season was a mirage and highly doubt that Darvish will repeat what he was able to accomplish in 2020.
Before I get into Darvish, I want to mention that I haven't looked into the prospects the Cubs received in this deal, other than the fact that the Cubs got four of them. Growing up a Phillies fan, I had the privilege of hearing how good Dom Brown, JP Crawford, Jesse Biddle, Joe Savery, Cornelius Randolph, and Nick Pivetta were going to be. I could probably keep going, but I'd rather not since I'm already crying. After all that pain, I've learned to take minor league prospects with a grain of salt until they actually start producing in the big leagues. I also am not putting a ton of stock in Victor Caratini, the catcher that went with Darvish to the Padres. He doesn't really move the needle other than the fact that Darvish likes throwing to him. So, for this discussion, I am only going to talk about Yu Darvish and Zach Davies, the veteran 27 year old that the Cubs received in return.
I'll start with Darvish. He was stellar last year, finishing with an 8-3 record and a 2.01 ERA, good enough to finish second in NL Cy Young voting. But let's really examine these stats because last season was very interesting in a few ways. Not only was the season shortened, but in an attempt to limit travel, the MLB structured the scheduled so that it wasn't so much American League and National League, but more so an eastern, central, and western geographical split. Sports commentators aren't really talking about this, but it is a huge factor when looking at Darvish's stats because he only had to face teams in the central division. Perhaps you're unaware of this, but the offense in Central last season was absolute TRASH. Lets take a look at where these teams ranked in terms of runs per game...
19th - Minnesota Twins (4.37)
20th - Detroit Tigers (4.29)
21st - Chicago Cubs (4.29)
24th - St. Louis Cardinals (4.20)
25th - Cleveland Indians (4.19)
26th - Kansas City Royals (4.13)
27th - Milwaukee Brewers (4.02)
28th - Cincinnati Reds (3.92)
30th - Pittsburgh Pirates (3.65)
Other than the White Sox, Darvish was set up to mop the floor with the bottom third of the league. Now, Darvish moves to the NL West and joins a division with the Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks who ranked 1st, 7th, 16th, and 18th in runs per game respectively. Additionally, MLB will be reverting back to a normal schedule so Darvish will also have to face teams like the Braves, Phillies, Nationals, and Mets who come in ranked 2nd, 5th, 10th, and 12th in this metric. Needless to say, Darvish's schedule looks MUCH tougher this year than it did last year.
Another seemingly overlooked circumstance from last season is...THERE WERE NO FANS! We're talking about the same guy who fell apart in the postseason (granted the Astros were cheating) and then spent the next two seasons a shell of his former self. Local sports commentary in Chicago following Darvish's disastrous 2018 season revolved around his request to only pitch road game as to avoid being booed at his home stadium (don't quote me on that, it's just something I remember hearing in the media). Either way, it's pretty clear that the pressure to perform affected him mentally and that's a pressure that is only going to be magnified when there's 40,000+ fans screaming their lungs out. Now that he's back in the NL West and will have to be making the trip to play Los Angeles, you know he's going to hear a plethora of boos rain down on him when he returns to Dodger Stadium for his ill-fated turns through the Dodger's rotation in the 2017 World Series (despite last year's revelations of the Houston Astros' cheating leading up to and throughout their title run).
The third major factor here is that Yu Darvish will be thirty-four years old in this upcoming season. While the Padres have a solid starting rotation, they traded for Darvish with the expectation that he'll be a top-end starter, capable of giving them 175+ quality innings. Last season, while obviously much shorter at sixty games, Darvish only threw 76 innings. Now a year older and expected to more than double his innings from last year, it's a lot to expect from a player his age. Not every pitcher should be expected to be akin to Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer, seemingly improving each season as they proverbially grow longer in the tooth. Looking at Darvish's stats from 2020, you begin to see a slight tailing off even as summer turned to fall, even in light of the shortened season. In July and August (7 starts), Darvish turned in a fantastic 6-1 record and a 1.47 ERA. Legitimate ace, top of the rotation material. In September (5 starts), he earned a 2-2 record and a 2.73 ERA. Still very solid, no doubt, but trending in the wrong direction. He also took the loss in his only postseason appearance, going 6.2 innings, giving up 2 runs. Solid, but again, a dip from how he started the year.
Now let's talk Davies. Zach Davies, in my opinion, is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Undoubtedly, the vast majority of casual viewers probably don't even know who he is. Fortunately for me, I lived in Chicago from 2015-2017 and had the opportunity to watch Davies pitch against the Cubs three or four times when he was coming up with the Brewers. As a former pitcher, my first thought when I first saw him was, "I don't know who this guy is, but I LOVE his mechanics." Since then, he has slowly become one of my favorite pitchers to watch. Davies doesn't throw hard and does little to inspire a "flashy" perception which is why I think many overlook him. Bottom line, though, he gets guys out. Looking at his statistics he's got a solid 3.79 career ERA; in the last two seasons, he's 17-11 with a 3.30 ERA, including last season, in which he went 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA in a tough NL West Division. That's very solid for a guy that many people are laughing at the Cubs for acquiring. The other positives here? He's only turning 27 this year, so his best years may yet be ahead of him.
So let's combine all of this info and look at the contracts. Yu Darvish is an aging pitcher, who pitched under ideal circumstances last season, and is owed $59 million dollars over the next three years. Zach Davies is a pitcher coming into his prime, has shown solid progression, and now gets to pitch in the same NL Central that Darvish cleaned up against last year. And guess what? He's only under contract for one more year at $8 million dollars. If the Cubs don't extend him past this season, he could be a prime piece to move at the trade deadline making his value even higher.
The Cub's President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer, has said the Yu Darvish trade wasn't motivated by financials and that he saw this as an opportunity to sell high on an aging player entering the back end of his contract. I'm sure many out there don't believe him and see this as a salary dump, but, after looking closely at the circumstances, I firmly believe Hoyer's explanation and think Zach Davies will outperform Yu Darvish this upcoming season. Given the fact that the Cubs also received four prospects out of what has been called one of baseball's best farm systems, I call that a win.
Fly the "W", Chicago.
Comments
Post a Comment