Braves Mailbag: June 18th Edition

How are the Braves going improve as they approach the MLB trade deadline and what are they going to do with their surplus of starting pitching? - AJ, Magnolia, DE

As we find ourselves roughly midway through June and rapidly nearing the season's midway point, the Atlanta Braves sit atop the NL East standings, sporting a 42-29 record and a 3.5 game lead on the Washington Nationals. Despite featuring one of the league's youngest rosters (with an average age of 27.8 years), the "Baby" Braves are most definitely a legitimate playoff contender. With an offense powered by infielders Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, and outfielder Nick Markakis, the Braves currently rank fourth in runs scored (344), sixth in on-base percentage (.325), and fifth in slugging percentage (.424). Their pitching staff, which is yielding 3.9 runs per game, has done an excellent job limiting the long ball (69 home runs allowed in 641.2 innings) as well as putting opposing batters away via the strikeout (637). From top to bottom, this is a very talented team that is going to push for the division title into September and, even if they have to settle for a Wild Card spot, will make some noise in October.

Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has been through some ups and downs with the team, but is now headlining one of the best teams in baseball.

As we approach the July 31st trade deadline, one has to wonder how exactly the Braves can improve upon an already pretty solid nucleus of position players and pitchers. Standing pat at the trade deadline really isn't an option, however; in the past decade, there are only a handful of teams that didn't make a major move at the trade deadline who would go on to compete in a World Series. The 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, the 2009 New York Yankees, the 2012 Detroit Tigers, the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals, and the 2014 Kansas City Royals chose to move forward with what they had as they competed for playoff positions. Perhaps coincidentally, only the 2009 Yankees managed to go on and win the World Series after such a decision. With a lineup that featured Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Robinson Cano and a pitching staff headlined by CC Sabathia and Mariano Rivera (all of whom were in the primes of their careers), is it really a surprise that this team didn't need any deadline help? Indeed, the 2009 Yankees infield was probably one of the best ones we've seen in the past fifty years. The Atlanta Braves don't have the luxury of sending out arguably one of the game's greatest hitters of all time (Alex Rodriguez) as well as slotting in the best closer in MLB history in the ninth inning (Mariano Rivera). In this current era of baseball, you simply can't afford to stand pat and be content with what you have. You must strive to get better every day and, at the July 31st deadline, that means dealing for a player who will make a difference in September and October.

With that in mind, what are the Braves going to do? There really are only two or three areas that this team will probably look to upgrade. Third base has been a bit of a black hole offensively for the team. Utility-man Ryan Flaherty has over performed all year long at the hot corner and is bound to come back to earth eventually (indeed, he has gone 8-for-44 over his last 23 games with just 3 RBI). You have to have better production than that from your third baseman. Slick fielding Johan Camargo brings some value with his glove work, but he's only hitting .221. The Jose Bautista experiment went about as poorly as one might imagine transitioning an aging thirty-seven year old outfielder back to the infield would go (which is to say, not well at all). The Braves certainly have the prospect power to go out and make a deal for a new player to man the hot corner; the team currently owns seven of the top 100 prospects in all of baseball according to MLB.com. We've seen a few of those prospects already in the big leagues to date; Ronald Acuna Jr. electrified the league with his unique blend of power and speed prior to a MCL sprain on May 28th and hurler Mike Soraka just twirled six no-hit innings vs. the New York Mets a few days ago. Pitchers Luiz Gohara (ranked #41) and Max Fried (#75) haven't been as good in their small MLB sample sizes as their peers, but they're still young and have shown that their potential is simply too great to cast away at this point. Knowing that, it is doubtful that the Braves will go out and spin a trade for Orioles shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado. Machado will almost certainly go out and test the free agent market at season's end. Should he go on to sign elsewhere, would you be content in dealing away years of untold potential for a two month rental? Make no mistake, the Orioles' star is a game changer and acquiring him would change the power dynamic of the entire National League. Furthermore, the Braves have no shortage of quality pitching prospects (something that the Orioles are in desperate need of). However, this may be a situation in which the risk outweighs the reward. As teams like the Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals have shown, building from within and then supplementing with low-risk deals is the way to go. You can't mortgage off your future for a shot at now (cough, cough, 2009-era Philadelphia Phillies, cough, cough). Just imagine what the Phillies would look like now if they still had Carlos Carrasco to slot into their starting rotation. Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre would be a nice addition, but his asking price will also probably be a little higher than what the Braves are looking to pay and there is likely to be a bidding war for his services (good for the Rangers, bad for whoever wants to trade for him). A World Series title is great, but having the depth and youth to challenge for a championship year in and year out is better. 

O's shortstop Manny Machado would slot in nicely in the middle of the Braves lineup, but his asking price may be too high for Atlanta to stomach.

If the Braves are going to pursue a new starting third baseman, they may look to Jay's cornerstone options Josh Donaldson and Yangervis Solarte or Kansas City superstar Mike Moustakas. All three players would cost considerably less than Machado, but they also have their own share of questions about them. Donaldson has struggled to stay healthy in 2018 and hasn't been particularly productive when he has taken the field (he's striking out in nearly a third of his at-bats and is slugging nearly eighty points below his career average). That being said, he did launch 33 home runs in just 415 at-bats in 2017 and is a game changer with his glove as well as his bat. Solarte is a stud who has done a great job filling in for Donaldson for the Jay's. He's versatile (he's played all over the infield), he's shown improved pop in 2018 (.480 slugging percentage vs. .426 career average), and has always done a decent job putting the ball in play (career 11.8% strikeout rate). Wow...the more I think about it, the more the switch-hitting slugger makes sense for the Braves. Mike Moustakas had to settle for a one-year deal for 2018 despite hitting 38 home runs in 2017 and putting forth his best offensive season to date. Currently, he's tied for ninth in all of baseball with 47 RBI on a Kansas City team that is going nowhere. For questions are absent about his bat, however, are made up for questions concerning his glove work. Moustakas is a liability in the field (he has consistently put up a negative DRS (defensive runs saved) value over the past few years) and probably makes more sense as an AL designated hitter than a third base man. Furthermore, I'm not sure the Braves need another lefty bat in their line-up (they already roll out Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis on a regular basis). In this era of fire-balling relievers, I'm not sure the recipe for postseason success is trotting out Freeman, Markakis, and Moustakas to face Aroldis Chapman or Josh Hader with a playoff game on the line. Lefty-on-lefty match-ups rarely work out for the hitter. For this reason, I think that if the Braves are going to acquire anybody to man the hot corner full time, it will be either Josh Donaldson or Yangervis Solarte.

Jay's versatile infielder Yangervis Solarte could shore up what has been a major weakness for the Braves in 2018.

Another area the Braves will probably look to improve is their bench. It's hard to not like the catching tandem of Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers. Flowers is probably one of the game's most underrated back-up catchers as he has really thrived in that role since 2016. Acquiring a new third baseman allows Ryan Flaherty to slide back into a utility role where he probably adds more value, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves look to go out and get a veteran like Pittsburgh Pirate David Freese, Colorado Rocky Carlos Gonzalez, or Gonzalez's teammate, Gerardo Parra. All three players are in the final years of their respective contracts so the asking price might not be too high. Freese is a right-handed bat who could man either corner infield spot and has playoff experience (highlighted by standout 2011 and 2012 performances for the Cardinals). That was a long time ago, but he's been solid in Pittsburgh the past few years and is likely on the way out the door following a scuffle with third base coach, Joey Cora. He should be a low-risk/high-reward candidate, but it remains to be seen what kind of presence he has in a clubhouse. I don't follow the Pirates or Cardinals too closely, but it's not a good look when players and coaches are fighting. Gonzalez and Parra would both be improvements on the current backup outfield situation for the Braves (no offense to Preston Tucker or Peter Bourjos), but they're also both lefties which plays into the problem I mentioned earlier. Gonzalez has shown that he is capable of hitting lefties in the past, however, so he could be an intriguing power bat off the bench for the Braves or a fill-in until Ronald Acuna can get back up to speed in left field. Ditto for Parra, though he trades some of those power numbers for a higher contact rate. 

Starter Brandon McCarthy has dominated the Phillies in three starts this year, but largely struggled against the rest of the competition.

The area that I think the Braves will most likely make a move for is either another starter or reliever. That may be a bit surprising as the Braves have benefited from a plethora of quality starting arms thus far in 2018, starting with bargain bin option Anibal Sanchez who has pitched like an ace when healthy. I don't think anybody could have foreseen Sanchez competing at this level; his last "good" season was 2014 and he was downright awful last year as he was shuffled between the starting rotation and bullpen for a horrible Detroit Tigers team (he turned in a 3-7 record with a 6.41 ERA with 139 hits allowed in just 105.1 innings). Julio Teheran has hopefully turned the corner after struggling to find his velocity to start the season after he posted six no-hit innings vs. the San Diego Padres in his most recent start. When healthy, Mike Foltynewicz has been lights out as he has developed into a legitimate top of the rotation starter (maybe not ace material, but he's getting awfully close to it). Newcomers Mike Soraka and Sean Newcomb have been absolutely fantastic. Even veteran Brandon McCarthy has had his moments in an otherwise forgettable 2018 season for the lanky righty (he's been particularly effective against the Philadelphia Phillies, who he has gone 3-0 against thus far in 2018). What the Braves are lacking, however, is a true #1 ace, somebody who you know can go out there and put forth six or seven innings of shutdown baseball in a win-or-go home situation. To be fair, such pitchers are few and far between in the league (there are only so many Max Scherzers or Cory Klubers to go around), but if you want to compete in October, you need big game pitchers. Last year, it was Justin Verlander who pushed the Astros over the top. Yu Darvish was solid after being acquired by the Dodgers down the stretch as well before faltering in a big way on the game's biggest stage. This year, there aren't as many big names on the market. Texas Ranger Cole Hamels is probably the one true ace on the market, but Kansas City Royal Danny Duffy and San Diego Padre Tyson Ross could also be on the trade docket. A lot of noise has been made about Tampa Bay righty Chris Archer as well as Detroit Tiger Michael Fullmer, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if neither pitcher was on the move come July 31st. They're both under team control for the foreseeable future and both teams aren't as far from competing as one would think (the Rays have a ton of young talent in their farm system and the Tigers play in what is one of the league's weakest divisions). Do the Braves go after Cole Hamels? It's tough to say; they'd find themselves in a bidding war if they were to go after the veteran lefty. Don't be surprised though if the Braves throw together a package of some low-to-mid tier prospects with one of their veteran starters for  pitcher like Danny Duffy or Tyson Ross.

Sidewinder Peter Moylan has struggled to limit base runners in his third go-around with the Braves in 2018.

Lastly, lets head to the bullpen. The Braves have a multitude of power arms to turn to in late innings. Arodys Vizcaino and Dan Winkler both boast ERA's under 2.00 (1.82 and 1.53 respectively) and feature premier strikeout potential. A.J. Minter has been great (maybe not as quite as good as he was in 2017), but he's been a solid option coming from the left side. Free agent acquisition Peter Moylan (in his third stint with the team) has been a little too hittable thus far in 2018, yielding 26 hits and 15 walks in just 22 innings. Shane Carle has been a revelation since his acquisition from the Rockies organization, but he was terrible in 2017 so it's tough to put too much stock in his performance to this point in 2018. Jesse Biddle and Sam Freeman have had their moments, but they've also shown a little inconsistency with their inability to limit walks. If there is one thing to take from this summary is that the Braves feature a talented, but young (and therefore unproven) bullpen. That could spell trouble in September and October when there is more at stake and the pressure mounts. With the Washington National's recent acquisition of Kansas City closer Kelvin Herrera, the Braves will need to go out and improve their bullpen situation if they hope to keep pace in the NL East. If the Rockies continue to fall out of playoff contention, strikeout machine Adam Ottavino could be an intriguing option. Padre's closer Brad Hand has been fantastic for almost all thirty-three of his appearances in 2018 and, seeing as he is a lefty, would serve as a major upgrade over Jesse Biddle or Sam Freeman. Lastly, Brad Brach of the Baltimore Orioles would represent another potential trade target for the Braves. He has a long track record of success in the league and has experience pitching in a variety of roles. Playoff baseball is not so much about quality starts any more as it is about dominant bullpens; indeed, the Los Angeles Dodgers made their way to the World Series last year primarily on the back of their bullpen. Moving forward, expect the Braves to go out and acquire one or two big arms to shore up the back end of their bullpen and provide some depth come September or October.

All images are courtesy of MLB.com.