Contenders or Pretenders? Analyzing the First Place Seattle Mariners

To contend or to pretend? That is the question.

In a season that has been full of surprises, from the two-way success of Shohei Ohtani, the prolonged slumps of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cleveland Indians, and the much faster than anticipated arrival of the new "Baby" Braves, the biggest surprise may be the early season success of the Seattle Mariners. Sixty-three games in, the Mariners are setting the pace in the AL West with a 40-23 record. For a team that struggled to a 78-84 record in 2017, the early season results in Seattle have to be encouraging. The Mariners have been a baseball pundit darling for years, but have rarely been able to reach expectations for their talented squad. Whether it be inconsistent pitching, streaky hitting, or shaky defense, the Mariners have only managed to put together three seasons of .500 baseball or better in the past decade and haven't reached the 90-win mark since 2003. Thus far in 2018, the newest iteration of the "Boys in Teal" looks to be more than capable of reaching the postseason. That being said, it's important to temper any hyperbole with facts and figures and that brings us to this question: are these Mariners for real or is this relatively small sample size unsustainable for an entire season?

To answer this question, I would suggest we look at three measurable components that put together a team. I say measurable because there are some aspects of a team that are unquantifiable that are undoubtedly important in determining a team's success (i.e. the team chemistry that propelled teams like the 1969 "Miracle Mets", the '04 Red Sox, and most recently the '16 Cleveland Indians to postseason glory). Conversely, a toxic environment can sabotage any team, no matter the physical ability of its players (the 2011 and 2012 iterations of the Boston Red Sox were particularly blessed with internal strife and folly). That being said, there is no way to numerically quantify team chemistry. You'll know a closely knit team when you see one, but chemistry just isn't a measurable statistic. With that in mind, I'm going to bring three different aspects of the Mariners game to mind: pitching, hitting, and defense. In major league baseball, the general recipe for success is combining solid starting pitching with above average hitting and at minimum league average defense. If you can combine those three ingredients, you'll likely be able to compete deep into the year and put yourself in a spot to challenge for a postseason slot. Each aspect is easily measurable as there are dozens upon dozens of statistics to choose from. In recent years, the Mariners have generally possessed one or two, but not three of these qualities which is why they haven't been to the post-season since 2001. Do today's iteration of the Mariners have what it takes to break this sixteen season drought? Lets find out!

Pitching

James Paxton has been fantastic thus far in 2018, twirling a no-hitter on May 8th.

At the most basic level, there are two aspects to a team's pitching staff: their starters and their bullpen. The 2018 Mariners boast one of the league's best relief corps while also employing a starting rotation that is at least above average with plenty of room for improvement. The fact that the Mariners have such a strong bullpen is important; as we saw in the 2017 World Series, the game has evolved (or devolved depending on how you look at it) as the expectation for starter pitchers isn't seven or eight innings of baseball, but rather four to five innings. When you have seven or eight relievers capable of hitting the mid-to-high nineties with their fastballs, it's easy to cycle from one pitcher to another in a "do or die" situation. 

To get to the postseason, however, you'll generally need some pretty decent solid pitching across the regular season. Since 2003, there have really only been three teams that have reached and won a World Series with what I would qualify as a "bad" starting rotation: the 2006 Cardinals, the 2008 Phillies, and the 2015 Royals. The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals have the distinction of being probably one of the worst teams to ever win a World Series as they rode a 83-78 regular season finish to a division title in a watered down NL Central. With one starter (Chris Carpenter) featuring an ERA under 3.50 and five starters with ERAs over 5.00 (headlined by Jason Marquis' 6.02 and Mark Mulder's 7.14 marks), starting pitching was definitely not the strength of the '06 Cards. That being said, their group of misfits turned it on for the postseason as Chris Carpenter, Jeff Weaver, and Jeff Suppan combined to go 9-4 across fourteen starts. Baseball is weird sometimes.

Chris Carpenter was the lone bright spot on possible the worst starting rotation to ever win a World Series.

The '08 Phillies rode Brad Lidge's 41-for-41 save record to a World Series title over the Tampa Bay Rays in spite of their starting staff which trotted out Adam Eaton (no, not the good one) twenty-one times (19 starts). That's nineteen times that the air and life (and really hope) was sucked out of Citizens Bank Park as Eaton sucked his way to a 4-8 record alongside a 5.80 ERA. However, to say that Eaton was the sole ace of ineptitude on that staff would be erroneous (!) as Kyle Kendrick was just as bad. Kendrick's line of 194 hits and 57 walks allowed in 155.2 innings is pretty atrocious. The Phils weren't as bad top to bottom as the '06 Cardinals, however, as they featured a staff ace in Cole Hamels, the ageless wonder that was Jamie Moyer (read this article for forty-nine fantastic facts about the ageless lefty), and a "meh" version of Brett Myers who was at least competent on the mound when he wasn't threatening to knock out media reporters. The '15 Royals weren't as bad as the '06 Cardinals or '08 Phillies, but they weren't that good either. Edinson Volquez and Yordano Ventura were solid all year long, but late season trade acquisition Johnny Cueto struggled during the regular season before being inconsistent in the post-season. Volquez and Ventura were the only two starters to throw more than 160 innings as Jeremy Guthrie was unable to continue his seven year streak of 180+ innings pitched as he struggled to a 5.95 ERA across 148.1 innings. With all of this in mind, we should ask what links these three World Series champions together? Fantastic bullpens. Which is good considering that the 2018 Mariners are composed in a similar manner to these three contenders.

I'd say that the Mariners rotation, as of now, is at least above average. As a group they're averaging just over 5.2 innings per start which is actually pretty good in today's game. Since 2014, there has been a precipitous drop in innings pitched per start, thus leading to lower total innings counts than we've seen, well, ever before. Take a look at the chart below to see what I'm talking about:

Longevity is an underrated quality among major league starters. Across the board, we're just not seeing pitchers extended more than five or six innings. Part of this is probably due to just how many good hard throwing relief options are out there. Injuries also play a role in managers keeping a tighter leash on pitch counts and innings limits. Starters simply aren't going as deep into games as they used to (Max Scherzer aside). Longer starts by your starting pitchers means that you're exposing your bullpen less, thus keeping your relief corps fresher and more rested. Looking back over the past twenty years, the 2005 Chicago White Sox are probably the most extreme example of this as they had four starters (Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, and Jose Contreras) post over 200 innings on the mound. In the fifth starter spot, Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez and rookie sensation Brandon McCarthy combined for 195.1 innings. Those strong performances from their starting five masked what was actually a pretty sub-par bullpen and allowed their relievers to play up in short spurts. Journeyman starter-turner-closer Dustin Hermanson converted 34 saves, Cliff Politte and Neal Cotts had career years, and Bobby Jenks burst onto the scene as a rookie to help lead the Sox to a 11-1 playoff record and the team's first World Series title since the 1919 "Black Sox". As you can see, starter durability and dependability can go a long way in guiding you to victory and the Mariners have four starters who could realistically put up between 160-180 innings this year. James Paxton has taken over the staff ace designation from "King" Felix Hernandez as he has spun 82.1 innings of 2.95 ERA baseball with a 5-1 record. Hernandez has struggled thus far to a 6-4 record with an ugly 5.33 ERA. Sinkerballer Mike Leake and former Cardinals prospect Marco Gonzalez round out the primary starting four for the Mariners and they've done so admirably, going a combined 13-6 thus far into the season. Wins, losses, and ERAs only tell part of the story, however. More important is the foursome's innings output. Paxton leads the way with 82.1 innings thus far, but he's followed closely by Mike Leake's 80.2 innings. Hernandez has contributed 74.1 innings to the cause while Gonzalez is right behind him with 74.0 innings. Getting longer outings from their starting staff has allowed the Mariner's bullpen to flourish and remain relatively fresh which should play dividends as we approach the "dog days" of summer.

King Felix is still logging innings for the Mariners, but he is hardly the pitcher that he once was.

The real strength of the Mariner's pitching rotation is in their bullpen. I'll admit now, I underestimated how good they would be going into this season, but my analysis at that time really didn't take into account the three headed hydra of James Pazos, Dan Altavilla, and Chasen Bradford. While that trio is bound to regress at some point in the season (Pazos' 21-to-1 K/BB ratio is simply unsustainable over 162 games), they are only part of the reason why this bullpen is so good. Strikeout machine Edwin Diaz has simply been electric this season. He's notched at least one strikeout in thirty-one of his thirty-three appearances thus far in 2018 and has really put to rest any doubts of his ability to thrive in the ninth inning. Recent trade acquisition Alex Colome has struggled to a 4.33 ERA to this point, but his track record (albeit relatively short) suggests better results may be forthcoming. With a healthy strikeout rate (he's averaging more than one per inning), he should be a useful setup option to bridge the gap from starting pitcher to Diaz in the ninth. Like Colome, Juan Nicasio is better than he's performed thus far and he now finds himself on the disabled list. However, he should be back soon and his track record also would seem to hint that we can expect more from him going forward. Swing man Wade LeBlanc has excelled in both starting and relieving roles thus far and Nick Vincent has been a steady, if unspectacular, presence as well. Needless to say, this is a deep bullpen with power arms left and right (Diaz, Pazos, and Altavilla all average 94+ MPH on their fastballs). With a 21-9 record in one-run games, the 2018 Seattle Mariners reminds me of another fairly recent surprise contender that made it to the postseason on the strength of their bullpen: the 2012 Baltimore Orioles. The O's 29-9 record in one-run games was a big reason that they were able to snap their fourteen year streak of losing seasons and shock the baseball world by snagging an American League Wild Card spot. Winning one-run games is not a sustainable business model (the 2013 O's went 20-31 in such games), but a team can ride the momentum from all those one run victories to postseason glory.

Edwin Diaz is simply unhittable when he is on.

Hitting

Nelson Cruz can still rake with the best of them in his age 37 season.

In my mind, the Mariners should have no qualms over their offensive capabilities due to the fact that much of their team has struggled to this point in the season, yet they still rank in the top-10 in most major offensive categories. Robinson Cano's PED suspension hurts because while he isn't the home run threat that he once was, he's still a professional hitter who will put the ball in play consistently (he's only struck out more than 100 times in a season twice in his fourteen year big league career). Nevertheless, don't expect the Mariners to flounder without him. Indeed, since Cano's suspension, the Mariners have gone 16-7. Outfielder Mitch Haniger may be one of baseball's best kept secrets as the talented righty currently ranks third in all of baseball in RBI (47) and outfield assists (5). The man is an absolute stud and, I have to be honest, probably one of the biggest surprises this season.

Mitch Haniger is one of baseball's best outfielders that you've never heard of (unless you're a Seattle fan).

Dee Gordon and Jean Segura bring a sense of excitement to the base paths (which hasn't always necessarily been a good thing for Segura throughout his career) and have combined for thirty-three stolen bases thus far into 2018. Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager haven't been quite as good as expected, but both seem to be heating back up after difficult months of May. Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino both possess 30+ home run potential, but both need to instill some plate discipline into their games as they've combined to strike out 102 times versus just sixteen walks. If the Mariners can get firing on all cylinders, watch out because this lineup is deep and powerful. Come trade deadline, don't be surprised if the Mariners go after O's outfielder Adam Jones (bringing him full circle to where his career began), righting what was probably one of the game's more lopsided trades. Manny Machado is probably going to be the biggest name dangled at the July deadline, but he doesn't really fit what the Mariners are looking for (especially with Cano due back at some point from his suspension).

Could a reunion with former Mariner's prospect Adam Jones be forthcoming in 2018?

In trying to determine what makes the Mariners offense click, I came across some interesting numbers that I think are intriguing given that they run slightly counter to what I was expecting. The Mariners play their home games at Safeco Park, a stadium that is generally more generous to pitchers than hitters given its large dimensions. With that in mind, I would've thought that line drive and ground ball hitters would thrive more so than fly ball hitters as with the gaps playing bigger due to stadium size, their is more potential for doubles and triples if you can hit it in between outfielders. It would also seem to make sense that more fly balls would result in outs rather than home runs because there is more room to make the play. However, looking at the player's line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates, I found something interesting:

	Ground Ball %	Line Drive %	Fly Ball %
Kyle Seager	35.5%	18.8%	45.7%
Nelson Cruz	46.6%	15.1%	38.4%
Dee Gordon	51.7%	21.7%	26.7%
Jean Segura	51.4%	23.4%	25.2%
Robinson Cano	46.7%	20.5%	32.8%

Virtually across the board, there was a pronounced bump in fly ball rate. Seeing a relatively high fly ball rate in Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano makes sense, but it's strange to see that Dee Gordon is seeing a 6% increase in fly ball rate. Jean Segura is hitting line drives at a rate 5% higher than his career average. What gives? Is it hitting philosophy or is it hitters just adjusting to the way the game is now being played with a proliferation of three outcome players (walk, home run, strikeout). Whatever the reason, hitting instructor Edgar Martinez has remained fairly tight-lipped on the matter, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a organization-wide change in hitting philosophy. Nothing shifts momentum quite like a home run, but come September and October, small ball and the ability to put the ball in play is one of the game's most tried and true recipes for success.

Defense

Kyle Seager is one of the game's best two-way stars, combining a great bat with Gold Glove caliber defense.

Overall, I'd say that the Mariners rank roughly near the league average in terms of defense with a handful of defensive standouts present on their roster. Third baseman Kyle Seager is one of the game's best defensive corner infielders as he currently ranks second among third baseman in range factor (essentially the number of defensive plays one is involved in divided by nine) and fifth overall in fielding percentage. Mitch Haniger leads the pack in terms of range factor for full time right fielders (those five outfield assists surely play a role in that ranking), though plays like the one below surely don't hurt matters as well.

Mike Zunino is an absolute stud behind home plate as he currently leads the league in runners caught stealing (12) while only allowing fourteen stolen bases on the season. For as much love as Jorge Alfaro of the Philadelphia Phillies gets (rightfully so, the man possesses an absolute cannon behind home plate), the talented backstop from Columbia has allowed twenty-four stolen bases versus eleven runners caught stealing. Admitted, a lot goes into throwing someone out (bad jumps, pitchers holding runners on, pitchers slide stepping towards home vs. leg kicks), but Mike Zunino really only sits behind Kansas City backstop Salvador Perez in terms of limiting opponent's running games. Ryon Healy, Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano, and Jean Segura are all ranked eighth, sixth, sixteenth, and eighteenth respectively among their positional peers in terms of range factor.

That being said, range factor isn't a measurement that lacks faults. Boston superstar Andrew Benintendi currently sits in dead last among left fielders in range factor. That's not a knock on his defensive prowess so much as it is a reflection of his playing at Fenway Park for half of his games, a field which really doesn't allow for that many fly outs to left field. Less plays made equates to a lower range factor and I think we can all agree that there is no way Andrew Benintendi is a worse defensive outfielder than Kyle Schwarber or Rhys Hoskins. So, with that in mind, perhaps range factor isn't the be all, end all way to determine a player's defensive worth. As I was looking for another stat to draw upon in determining how good (or bad) the Mariner's defense was, I came across one that was quite interesting and that was DRS (defensive runs saved). DRS is a mishmash of a number of defensive calculations that determines how many runs a player prevents or gives up compared to league average. By measuring values such as a pitchers ability to hold runners, infielders fielding bunts cleanly and turning double plays, and outfielders holding runners to singles instead of extra bases, baseball statisticians were able to create a value that seemed to be able to properly reflect how good or bad a player was defensively. Their rating system is as follows:

Defensive Ability	DRS
Gold Glove Caliber	+15
Great	+10
Above Average	+5
Average	0
Below Average	-5
Poor	-10
Awful	-15

In 2017, Minnesota Twin Byron Buxton led all center fielders with twenty-eight defensive runs saved. It should come as no surprise then that he was the recipient of multiple defensive awards last season, raking in both the Rawlings Gold Glove award and Wilson Defensive Player of the Year award. Conversely, St. Louis Cardinals' outfielder Dexter Fowler (who has been in the news recently for his defensive showing in center field) graded out with negative eighteen defensive runs saved. Essentially, Fowler cost his team eighteen runs (Yikes!). With these new stats in hand, I feel that we get a much more realistic view of the state of Seattle's defense. Mike Zunino has currently accrued 5 DRS which sounds about right. He's posted three seasons of at least 8 DRS and he is a well above average defender (if only his bat could get a little more consistent...). Ryon Healy is a real liability for the M's right now at first base as he's sporting a -6 DRS value. For his career, he's been a slightly below average option at third base (-2 DRS), but he's really struggled to transition from the hot corner across the diamond thus far into his Mariner's career. Kyle Seager's 5 DRS should come as no surprise. Like Zunino, Seager is a great defender and multiple statistics will back up that assertion. In 2016, Seager put up a 15 DRS season so the sky is the limit for this slick fielding third baseman. Jean Segura is just above average with a 2 DRS rating. Honestly, he's probably better suited to second base, but he'll be the shortstop for the Mariners for the foreseeable future. The outfield is a mix of good and bad. Mitch Haniger's DRS rating of 4 supports my earlier statement regarding his defensive prowess in right field. The Dee Gordon experiment in center field is tough to judge. According to range factor and fielding percentage, Gordon is ranked sixth among all center fielders (one spot behind defensive stalwart Kevin Pillar of the Toronto Blue Jays). However, his -6 DRS rating is more indicative of the results in the early going for the natural second baseman in his first full season in the outfield. Ben Gamel has been below average in left field (-6 DRS), but newly acquired Denard Span should provide some relief as he was just above average during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays (1 DRS).

Span is an odd case as he has put forth two truly great defensive seasons as a center fielder in 2011 and 2012. From the time he suited up with the Washington Nationals in 2013, however, Span has really, really, REALLY struggled defensively. His porous defense in center field was especially evident in 2017 as he cost the Giants 27 DRS (Ouch!). At this point in his career, Span is simply incapable of playing a competent center field at the major league level. That being said, he has shown that he is an above average corner outfielder in the limited time that he has played those spots in the past. Moving forward, Span should slot in nicely in left field for the Mariners while providing, at minimum, league average defense.

There are few questions about Denard Span's bat; his glove, well, that's another story...

The Verdict

In conclusion...I would have to say that most definitely the 2018 Seattle Mariners are for real! In particular, I believe that their bullpen is going to carry them throughout this season. Their starting rotation does have some questions (can Marco Gonzalez continue performing at a high level, can King Felix and James Paxton stay healthy), but help may be on the way. If the Mariners don't acquire a bat at the trade deadline, don't be surprised if they push to acquire either Patrick Corbin from the Diamondbacks or J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays. The Happ deal would probably be more likely as the Blue Jays are rapidly falling further and further from postseason contention, but the Diamondbacks may be sellers if they run into another cold streak like the one they just are now seemingly snapping out of. After starting the season 20-8, they stumbled to a 8-19 record in May. While they have a 6-2 record in June, another month like May could knock them out of the postseason picture really quickly with both the Dodgers and Giants playing much better ball out west.

Could we see D-Backs lefty Patrick Corbin switch teams and leagues come trade deadline? Expect to see the Mariners and Yankees contend for the lefty's services come July 31st.

Though it may be early, the next two weeks are going to be key in determining whether or not the Mariners can stick around the AL West race and continue pushing the Houston Astros for the division lead. Ten of their next fourteen games will be against the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees, the two best teams in all of baseball. Three of those other games will be against the Los Angeles Angels who aren't exactly slouches themselves (despite their recent loss of Shohei Ohtani for the foreseeable future). Conversely, the Houston Astros will spend the next two weeks beating up on the Kansas City Royals (6 games) and Tampa Bay Rays (3 games). If the Mariners hope to maintain a lead on their AL West rival, they'll need to have a winning record over these next two weeks. If the Mariners can make it through this tough stretch of ball, they'll be rewarded with six games against the Royals and Orioles (both of whom could be dealing their best players in the form of Mike Moustakas and Manny Machado in the coming weeks). Regardless of what happens, this has been a great season to date for Seattle fans and it should be a fun summer watching them duke it out with the Houston Astros for AL West supremacy.

Pictures are courtesy of MLB.com.