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| The offensively challenged Arizona Diamondbacks have struggled to a .227 team batting average in 2018. |
It has certainly been a season of ups and downs in Phoenix, Arizona as the Diamondbacks find themselves standing in first place in the NL West with a 40-33 record, up two games on the surging Los Angeles Dodgers. After starting the season on a 20-8 tear, the Diamondbacks slipped to a .500 record over their next twenty-seven games, going 8-19 in the month of May. Since then, though, they've managed a 12-6 record, displaying much of the same form that propelled them to the second best record in baseball on May 1st. Will the Diamondbacks be able to keep up the pace and challenge for a NL West crown? It's tough to say at this point. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been division champions in seven of the past ten years (including the past five seasons) and have gone 22-8 since enduring a six game losing streak in mid-May. It was only a matter of time before Dave Roberts' team got the train on track; they're simply too talented of a team to play sub-par baseball for a full season. The Diamondbacks would've done well to go on a winning streak amidst the Dodger's struggles, but baseball does as baseball will do and they find themselves clinging to the division lead with the Boys in Blue hot on their tails.
Settling for a winner take all Wild Card play-in game for the postseason is a risky affair for a team with World Series aspirations and the Diamondbacks simply can't afford to allow the Dodgers to overtake them (and, quite frankly, it's looking more and more like the NL Wild Card spots will be coming out of the NL East). If the D-Backs are going to win the NL West, they're going to need to improve their team at the trade deadline in a manner similar to the way they did last year (acquiring slugger J.D. Martinez from the Detroit Tigers on July 18th). Martinez powered the Rattlers to a 39-30 record over their final sixty-nine games, blasting 29 home runs in just 62 games (232 AB's). While there really isn't anyone of Martinez's pedigree available this year (outside of Manny Machado whom I don't think will net the Orioles quite the haul I'm sure they're hoping for as he'll surely test the free agency market this coming offseason), there are plenty of options available that would make the Diamondbacks a better team at the end of the day and put them in a better position to challenge the Dodgers for NL West supremacy.
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| Matt Kemp has been one of the game's biggest surprises in 2018, putting forth an MVP caliber season in his return to L.A. after a three year hiatus. |
While there are a lot of areas in which the Diamondbacks could improve upon in a big way via trade at this point (looking at you catchers), I believe the area they'd do well to improve is their corner outfield situation. While David Peralta has been consistent presence in left field, the D-Backs have struggled to get really any production from the rest of their corner outfield cast. Off season trade acquisition Steven Souza has struggled to replicate the form he showed in 2017 when he blasted 30 home runs and drove in 78 runs. So far in a 2018 season marred by injury, Souza has put forth a .163 batting average across just twelve games. Infielder-turned-outfielder Chris Owings has largely been the man responsible for handling right field duties in Souza's absence and he's been simply atrocious, clocking in at a .190 batting average while striking out in over a quarter of his at-bats (26.5% K-rate). In-season pickup Jon Jay has done well, batting .326 with a .436 on-base percentage, but he has largely had to fill in out in center field as perpetually injured star A.J. Pollock has hit the disabled list for the third time in the past three seasons. The Diamondbacks are in desperate need of some pop out in one of their corner outfield spots and I think the answer to this need is...
Adam Duvall of the Cincinnati Reds!
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| Alright...bear with me on this one. |
Hear me out on this one because a batter struggling to the tune of a .196 batting average with 67 strikeouts in just 219 at-bats seems ill-fitted to be the savior of an offense that ranks dead last in team batting average (.227) that has also already racked up 682 strikeouts as a team. But some of his trends may hint that better times are in store for the twenty-nine year old slugger. Duvall is currently posting a career best walk rate (10.2%) while maintaining a strikeout rate that is essentially identical to his career average (27.2% in 2018 to 27.1% career). Strikeouts have always been the tale of the tape for Adam Duvall. Walks, not so much. The .196 batting average is ugly, but it is largely in part due to a paltry .225 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). An average BABIP rate is around .300, so Duvall has suffered his fair share of poor luck in 2018. It's not like he's not squaring up the ball; Duvall's line drive rate is actually up a few ticks in 2018 (21.6% vs. 19.5% career) while his fly ball rate is down almost a full percentage point (46.4% vs. 47.2%). His average hit speed of 89.8 MPH is a full mile per hour above the MLB average. According to Fangraphs.com, Duvall's hard hit ball percentage is actually the highest it has ever been in his career at 39.9%. All these signs indicate that Duvall will eventually turn things around and be the type of hitter he's capable of being (141 extra-base hits between 2016-2017). Defensively, Duvall has been spectacular the past few years with thirty-five DRS (defensive runs saved) since 2015. It's an aspect of his game that doesn't get as much attention as his hitting, but it is definitely a tool that puts his team in a better position to win.
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| Strikeouts aside, Adam Duvall does have game changing power from the right side of the plate. |
Will the Diamondbacks be able to acquire Duvall? It's tough to say. The asking price is likely to be high for the Reds outfielder, even with his struggles in 2018. Duvall is still under team control for a few years and isn't going to be eligible for free agency for a few seasons. That factor is going to drive up the asking price from the Reds and teams will have to pony up some near-MLB ready prospects if they hope to acquire the services of the talented left fielder. The Reds really aren't that far away from competing in the NL Central again; they've got a lot of talent in their lineup and they've got a bullpen that is electric at times. Starting pitching is really the Achilles heal for the Cincinnati ball club. If the Diamondbacks hope to acquire Duvall, they'll need to part with some of their pitching prospects who are close to being MLB-ready (seventh ranked prospect Taylor Clarke or sixteenth ranked Cody Reed may be good headliners for a package for Duvall). It would be an expensive pick-up and Duvall isn't likely to produce quite at the level that Martinez did a year ago. However, Duvall would slot in nicely behind Paul Goldschmidt in the desert (a .250 average with 15-20 home runs seems like a realistic expectation for the slugger) and create one heck of a 1-2 punch for a team in need of some firepower.
All images and GIFs courtesy of MLB.com.
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