It's All in the Pen: Ranking the Bullpens (#10 - #1)

This article is part two of a three part series with part three due to come out tomorrow, Monday (March 26th). Part one can be found here. Part two can be found here.

At long last, here are the top ten ranked bullpens in the major leagues. As you'll notice, the top five of these 'pens feature one thing in common: depth. Whereas most teams have one or two (in some cases, three) true shut down pitchers for late innings, you'll find that the top ranked 'pens are flush with elite talent.

For further clarification on some of my vocabulary and statistical analysis, see the intro in part one of this series (the link can be found above). 

10. New York Mets (3.3 WAR)

Mets closer Jeurys Familia struggled to find consistency in 2017 after a turbulent off season and early season injury.

With a projected WAR total of 3.3, the New York Mets check in as the tenth ranked bullpen in the majors for the 2018 season. A lot of the Met's fortunes lay on the shoulders of Jeurys Familia, who will be hoping to put a trying 2017 season behind him. After a fantastic two year run from 2015-2016 that saw the hard throwing righty put up 94 saves in 154 appearances, Familia struggled to find his footing after an early season 15-game suspension stemming from a domestic violence charge in the off season. When he returned from his suspension, Familia was clearly not right physically and he was diagnosed with an arterial blood clot in his throwing shoulder that required surgery. Though he was able to make a successful return to the mound last August, Familia will need to rein in his walk rate which jumped by nearly 4% in 2018. Provided he can find the strike zone more often, he should be able to utilize his heavy sinker in inducing plenty of weak contact and swings-and-misses. Mid-season trade acquisition AJ Ramos will likely play a role in late innings despite featuring middling "stuff" as a relief pitcher (his fastball comes in at a pedestrian 92.3 MPH for a modern day relief pitcher). Jerry Blevins is a nice LOOGY, but I wouldn’t want to rely on him for anything more than that. Rounding things out, Anthony Swarzak will be one to watch as his 2017 season with the Chicago White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers was considerably better than any of his other professional stops (minors included). Can he repeat his '17 performance in 2018? Only time will tell.

9. Cleveland Indians (3.5 WAR)

Lefty Andrew Miller has thrived since his move to the 'pen in 2012.

After a thrilling run that left them with the game's second longest winning streak ever (22 in a row!) and one game shy of making the ALCS, the Indians will enter 2018 with a essentially the same 'pen as they did a year ago. While set-up man Bryan Shaw's departure via free agency will certainly be felt by the team (he led the team with 79 appearances in 2017), the team hopes free agent signing Matt Belisle can help fill that void. Belisle went 2-2 with a 4.03 ERA last year with 9 saves in 62 games for the Minnesota Twins. Nick Goody has struggled this spring training, but he did put up a 2.80 ERA in 56 games last year for the Tribe. Dan Otero continues to thrive despite a pedestrian strikeout rate (his success largely rests on his ability to induce ground balls, twelve of which were turned into double plays last season). Lastly, the eighth and ninth innings are in good hands as Andrew Miller and Cody Allen should continue to dominate hitters. The duo combined to pitch 140.0 innings of 2.19 ERA baseball, with 187 K's vs. only 88 hits allowed. They are as good a one-two punch in late innings as any pair in all of baseball and should continue to overpower hitters in 2018.

7 (tie). Washington Nationals (3.6 WAR)

Mid-season acquisition Sean Doolittle solidified a Nat's bullpen that struggled to hold leads throughout 2017.

Entering the 2017 season, the Washington Nationals were a nearly unanimous choice by baseball experts to make a deep postseason run given the strength of their offense and starting pitching. If there was a weak spot on the team, it was in their bullpen, as they failed to sign an established closer to fill the void left by Mark Melancon leaving via free agency. However, the Nationals felt that setup man Blake Treinen was ready to step into the limelight as a premier closer in the league. In addition, holdovers Shawn Kelley and Koda Glover were joined by free agent acquisitions Matt Albers and Joe Blanton, with the latter coming off a fantastic two year stretch with the Royals, Pirates, and Dodgers. Well, thinks didn't go to plan as Treinen struggled to avoid hard contact while Blanton, Kelley, and Glover all dealt with nagging injuries. Aside from Matt Albers (who actually had arguably the best season of his career), the Nat's bullpen was absolutely terrible in the season's first half which spurred management into wheeling and dealing for some mid-season reinforcements. While the moves to acquire Oakland A's Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle along with Minnesota Twin Brandon Kintzler definitely stabilized the 'pen for the remainder of 2017, there are still some question marks surrounding the trio of Nats relievers as they enter their first full season with the team. Can Madson and Doolittle both continue to stay healthy? Can Brandon Kintzler duplicate his '17 success despite a well below average strikeout rate? Can Shawn Kelley bounce back and be a useful member of the team moving forward? All these questions will be answered soon with the season right around the corner.

7 (tie). Cincinnati Reds (3.6 WAR)

Closer Raisel Igelesias tallied eight saves of at least six outs in 2017.

While it may be a bit surprising to see the Red's bullpen rated this highly (they did go 68-94 last year), Steamerprojections is very high on the arms they possess in the bullpen, predicting that they'll account for 3.6 WAR in 2018. Closer Raisel Iglesias is projected to account for 0.9 WAR by himself and that should come as no surprise. The talented righty has been rock solid since converting to a relief pitcher in 2016 and led the league with eight saves of six outs in 2017. Long outings aren't atypical for the Cuban born hurler; 18 of his 63 appearances in 2017 lasted longer than one inning. While he is projected to throw 65 innings by Steamer, I wouldn't be surprised to see him approach 80 when all is said and done. Michael Lorenzen is another starter-turned-reliever who did well last year. His 70 appearances led the team and he actually accounted for the seventh most innings on the team despite not starting a game. Wandy Peralta, Kevin Shackelford, and David Hernandez are all projected to be solid contributors for this squad in 2018. While the team may be rebuilding, their 'pen should be able to keep them in the game provided that their starters don't dig them too deep of a hole early on.

5 (tie) St. Louis Cardinals (3.9 WAR)

Newcomer Luke Gregerson should fill the void left by Trevor Rosenthal in the ninth inning for the Cards.

Despite not employing a conventional closer, the St. Louis Cardinals' will boast an very strong 'pen in 2018, headlined by three off-season acquisitions: Luke Gregerson, Bud Norris, and Dominic Leone. While his 2017 season wasn't his best, Luke Gregerson is a consistent performer who has been successful in a variety of roles (he will start the season on the DL, though). Bud Norris turned in a phenomenal first half of the season in 2017 (2.23 ERA) before struggling after the All-Star break (7.01 ERA). However, he does possess a skill set that should lead to success in the 'pen (mid-90's fastball with a mid-80's slider). Dominic Leone, acquired via a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, is expected to open the season as the closer after posting some fantastic numbers in 2017 (2.56 ERA across 70.1 innings with a 81/23 K-to-BB ratio). Lefty Brett Cecil should also factor into the set-up discussion as he has a long track record of success in the big leagues.

5 (tie). Los Angeles Dodgers (3.9 WAR)

Catcher-turned-closer Kenley Jansen is second only to Craig Kimbrel in WAR among relievers.

Like the Boston Red Sox, the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen is built with one idea in mind: get the ball to Kenley Jansen. Jansen put together a truly remarkable 2017 campaign that saw him turn in a sparkling 1.32 ERA with a mind-numbing 109 to 7 K/BB ratio. Things get a little tricky in the innings leading up to the ninth for the Dodgers, however, which is why they aren't higher on this list. Trade acquisition Scott Alexander should play a role in the 7th or 8th inning as a set-up man for Jansen, but he is still a relatively unknown quantity (he has appeared in only 79 games over three seasons at the big league level). Pedro Baez is a solid pitcher, but he has had some problems keeping the ball in the park over the past few years (20 home runs allowed between '16-'17). Ross Stripling, Walker Buehler, and Wilmer Font should all contribute to the big league 'pen (whether in relief or in the rotation remains to be seen for Buehler), but all of them have their own share of question marks. Buehler is very talented, but also quite young (he started 2017 with the A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes). Font made his MLB debut 2012, but has bounced around since then. Stripling, like Alexander, is still relatively fresh as he has made 71 appearances over the past two seasons for the Dodgers. The Dodger's struggled to find consistency in their set-up crew last year until they brought up Brandon Morrow. With him leaving via free agency for to the Chicago Cubs, it'll be interesting to see what they will do if they run into trouble with their relievers this year.

4. Chicago Cubs (4.7 WAR)

Hard throwing righty CJ Edwards could fill in at closer for the Cubs in 2018.

Checking in with the fourth ranked bullpen in the MLB is the Chicago Cub, who are projected to put up a WAR rating of 4.7. The swap of Wade Davis for Brandon Morrow is a risky move by Cub's management. Though Davis does have his own share of injury concerns that may make a team pause and reflect before signing him to a long term deal, Morrow is clearly the bigger question mark in terms of maintaining a clean bill of health. Granted, Morrow was injury free during a 2017 season that saw him appear in 45 regular season games before turning on the afterburners and lacing it up for 14 more games in the post-season (including all seven World Series affairs). That being said, last year was his first DL-free season since 2011 and he threw almost half as many innings last year (76.2 between the Dodgers and their AAA affiliate) as he did from 2013-2016. What toll that workload will have on his arm is as much a mystery to you as it is to Cub's management. However, even if Morrow falters, there are a number of good pieces to the Cub's 'pen. Newcomers Brian Duensing, Justin Wilson, and Steve Cishek are all coming off of fantastic '17 seasons as are holdovers CJ Edwards, Pedro Strop, and Mike Montgomery. Montgomery may actually see some time in the starting rotation if free agent signing Tyler Chatwood runs into health issues (as he has been wont to do over the course of his career). Personally, I can see CJ Edwards taking over as the club's closer at some point in the '18 season. He has the "stuff" (he pairs a mid-90's fastball with a devastating curveball) and, provided he can keep the walks in check, should be first or second up in the case of an injury to Morrow.

3. Milwaukee Brewers (4.9 WAR)

Strikeout artist Corey Knebel racked up an impressive 126 strikeouts in only 76.0 innings in 2017.

As you will notice, the top three teams in the bullpen rankings all possess exceptional depth. The Milwaukee Brewers kick things off by employing five relievers who are projected to put up 0.5+ WAR seasons. Corey Knebel is the leader of the pack and is one of the better relievers in the game. Knebel's strikeout rate jumped an impressive 14% percent in 2017 (his 40.8 K% trailed only Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Chad Green) and he should be a lock for 30+ saves. Two youngsters, Jacob Barnes and Josh Hader, are projected to combine for 120 innings of great relief pitching and they will be joined by former Nat Matt Albers who is coming off of a career year in D.C.. While Albers likely won't put together another sub-2.00 ERA season, he is a quality reliever who can pitch in any inning from the sixth through the ninth. Jeremy Jeffress has long had the potential to be a perennial All-Star relief pitcher, but has struggled to maintain consistency at the big league level. After missing the post-season by a single game, the Brewers should be in position to make a run to October provided their starting pitching can keep them in the game until they can get their bullpen involved.

2. New York Yankees (5.1 WAR)

Though Aroldis Chapman may be the  one picking up saves for the Yankees, their 'pen is flush with talent with at least three viable elite closers.

With a projected combined WAR of 5.1, the New York Yankees rank as the second best projected bullpen for the 2018 season. Whereas some of the teams in the top ten have a two or even a three headed monster to close out games, the Yankees sport a five headed hydra with Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman capable of shutting teams down in their tracks. Chapman is obviously the leader of the pack. Last year, Chapman's fastball continued to overpower hitters as it averaged over 100 MPH for the fourth straight season (!). He isn't alone in the 'pen as the Yankees brought back fan-favorite David Robertson in a mid-season swap with the White Sox that also net them set-up man Tommy Kahnle. While Kahnle was spectacular during last year's postseason, Robertson may have been even better. In 30 regular season appearances after coming over from the Sox, Robertson put up a microscopic 1.03 ERA across 35 innings, allowing only 14 (!) hits with a 51/14 K-to-BB ratio. While he wasn't as untouchable during the postseason, Robertson gives the Yankees a dependable safety net in the case of injury to Chapman. Though Dellin Betances hasn't been as good as he was from 2014-2015 (largely due to his growing walk rate), he still managed to strike out over a hundred batters for the fourth straight season (a remarkable feat for a relief pitcher). Chad Green rounds out the power-five for the Yankees as he comes off a 40 appearance season that saw him punch out 103 batters in just 69.0 innings. All in all, the Yankees boast one of the league's best 'pens, one that is capable of essentially shortening games from nine innings to five innings. If you have to face any combination of these five pitchers in a row, chances are you'll go down swinging.

1. Houston Astros (6.1 WAR)

Though he struggled in the '17 post-season, young closer Ken Giles should once again head the Astro's bullpen in 2018.

It should come as little surprise that the defending World Series champion Houston Astros top our list as the best bullpen in the major leagues for the 2018 season. With a projected combined WAR is 6.1, there is both quality and quantity to this Astro's bullpen as the teams boasts six pitchers projected to have 0.5+ WAR seasons. With last year's acquisition of Justin Verlander and their off-season pickup of Gerritt Cole, the Astros are in the enviable position of pushing two quality starters to the 'pen in the form of Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock. Peacock was arguably one of the most important cogs in the Astro's machine last year, churning out a 13-2 record over 34 games (21 starts). He has seemingly picked up right where he left off this preseason, turning in a dazzling 0.96 ERA over six appearances this spring. While Collin McHugh missed much of 2017 due to injury, he was quite effective down the stretch for the 'Stros, going 5-2 over twelve late season starts and he is just two seasons removed from a 19-7 record. However, the 'pen is much deeper than these two swing-starters as they are joined by holdovers James Hoyt, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, and Ken Giles as well as newcomers Joe Smith and Hector Rondon. It truly is an embarrassment of riches for the Astros and it is this depth that gives them the edge over the New York Yankees for the best bullpen in the majors.

All images are courtesy of MLB.com and statistics are courtesy of Fangraphs.com. Projected WAR values are courtesy of Steamerprojections.com.