As we inch closer and closer to Opening Day, here are the next ten teams that represent the mid-tier of relief pitching in the MLB. For further clarification on some of my vocabulary and statistical analysis, see the intro in part one of this series (the link can be found in the above paragraph).
20. Minnesota Twins (2.2 WAR)
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| Despite a rough spring training, Trevor Hildenberger should play into the late inning equation for the Twins in 2018. |
Despite adding free agents Fernando Rodney and Addison Reed to the equation for 2018, the Minnesota Twins are projected to put up a combined bullpen WAR of just 2.2, good for twentieth in the league. That projection makes sense when you think about what else the Twins are working with; last year, they trotted out the likes of Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressley, and Buddy Boshers in relief, all of whom posted ERA's over 4.50. Duffey and Pressley are back in 2018 and Steamers expects more of the same from the duo this year. Addison Reed is a solid addition who has excelled in a variety of roles over the past few seasons. Side-armer Trevor Hildenberger should also contribute in the late innings for the Twins in 2018. The biggest question mark in the 'pen also happens to be the premier signing of the Twin's offseason: Fernando Rodney. Despite featuring a fastball that still averages 95+ MPH even at age 41, there really is no telling what you'll get from the Dominican-born closer. Honestly, Rodney could conceivably put up an ERA that ranges from 2.50 to 5.00 with either pedestrian or elite strikeout numbers. You just don't know what you're going to get.
Yes, I said it, Fernando Rodney's career is literally a box of chocolates.
19. San Francisco Giants (2.3 WAR)
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| Mark Melancon will need to rebound from a difficult 2017 season for the Giants to be competitive in 2018. |
Though the Giants were just
dealt a brutal hand to start the 2018 season, they should take some solace in the fact that they have a reasonably deep stable of arms to call on in relief of a starting rotation already decimated by injuries. Closer Mark Melancon will need to be better in 2018 if he wants to keep his job as fellow relievers Sam Dyson and Tony Watson have also experience success in the ninth inning in years past. Former closer of the future, Hunter Strickland, is also still on the team and is coming off a 2.64 ERA season. Sidewinder Cory Gearrin and lefty Will Smith round out a strong bullpen for the San Francisco Giants. All this being said, it's tough to envision a future in which any of these pitchers will have to many leads to hold; injuries to both Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija have essentially squelched any hopes of a 2018 post-season run for the G-Men.
17 (tie). Atlanta Braves (2.4 WAR)
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| A.J. Minter made quite an impression in 2017, striking out 26 batters in 15.0 innings for the Braves. |
Is AJ Minter the next Craig Kimbrel? If last season's cup of coffee is to be believed, the Braves may have caught lightning in a bottle in the Texas-born righty. Minter struck out almost two batters per inning during his debut season in Atlanta and he pairs a 96 MPH fastball with a hard, diving slider. Arodys Vizcaino is another solid pitcher who pairs an overpowering fastball with a hard breaking ball. For Vizcaino, the key to success lies in him continuing to limit free passes (he dropped his walk rate by over 5% in 2017) as well as continuing to induce swings on bad pitches out of the strike zone (35.2% in 2017). Peter Moylan makes his third pit stop in Atlanta for the 2018 season after signing a one-year deal this past February. Steamer has him chipping in 40 innings of league-average pitching. Provided he can stay healthy, I think he has a little more to offer (after all, he did lead the league with
79 appearances in 2017 for the Kansas City Royals). Then again, that provision of health is a long shot; Moylan's injury history reads like Lindsay Lohan's rap sheet: long and disappointing.
17 (tie). Philadelphia Phillies (2.4 WAR)
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| Former starter Adam Morgan found success (and almost 4 MPH on his fastball) after a mid-career transition to the 'pen. |
With a budding young core in the form of Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, and J.P. Crawford, the Phillies should be able to put some runs on the board in 2018. Tasked with preserving any leads they might have will be incumbent closer Hector Neris, who is coming off of a fantastic 2017 season, as well as free agent signings Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek. While Steamerprojections isn't crazy about Neris maintaining his momentum from 2017 (they have his ERA jumping over a full run from 3.01 to 4.13), he has one of the game's best splitters (a notoriously streaky pitch to master) and has put together back-to-back-to-back seasons of above average baseball. Neshek and Hunter are coming off of fantastic 2017 seasons (Hunter's 2.61 ERA was the lowest of his career). Former soft-tossing starter Adam Morgan will be another player to watch as he continues to develop as a reliever entering his second full season of bullpen work. In the same vein as former Orioles lefty Brian Matusz, Morgan found success at the big league level (as well as a few miles per hour on his fastball) after he transitioned to the 'pen in 2017 and will play a big role in silencing the bats of division rivals Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Daniel Murphy in late inning lefty-on-lefty match-ups.
16. Seattle Mariners (2.5 WAR)
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| Despite a fastball that almost averages 98 MPH, closer Edwin Diaz will need to keep the walks in check to be successful in 2018. |
With a projected combined WAR of 2.5, the Seattle Mariner's bullpen comes in ranking right in the middle of all thirty big league clubs. Leading the pack will be third year closer, Edwin Diaz, who is coming off an up-and-down 2017 season that saw him briefly lose his title last May as he struggled to consistently find home plate with his pitches. For him to be successful, he'll need to cut down on his walk rate which jumped from 2.6 to 4.4 last season. For some reason, Steamerprojections really doesn't approve of the dependable Nick Vincent, who turned in a 3.20 ERA in 2017 with less than a hit allowed per inning pitched. For whatever reason, Steamer has him earning a 0.0 WAR rating (meaning he's no better than a AAA player) which I believe is a little harsh for a player who has a career ERA of 3.00 in the big leagues.
With perhaps the league's best nickname, Mark "Scrabble" Rzepcynski is a solid LOOGY (left-handed one out guy) for the Mariners in a division that features lefty sluggers Matt Olson, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, and Nomar Mazara (really, the majority of the Rangers lineup are lefty sluggers).
15. San Diego Padres (2.8 WAR)
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| After inheriting the closer gig following the Brandon Maurer trade, Brad Hand churned out 21 saves for the 2018 season. |
Despite featuring a starting rotation that will hardly strike fear into the heart of any lineup, the Padres actually possess one of the league's more underappreciated assets in their bullpen. Leading the charge is closer and 2017 All-Star Brad Hand,
who signed a three year contract extension with a club option for 2021 this off-season. Hand struck out over one hundred batters in just 79.1 innings of work in 2017 and he also did a great job limiting walks (2.3 BB/9 inn.). Joining Hand are righties Kirby Yates and Craig Stammen who combined for 136 innings in 2017. One wildcard who could really take this 'pen to the next level is strikeout machine Carter Capps who is making his way back from injury. Capps,
owner of one of the league's stranger deliveries, is recovering from a September surgery aimed at addressing thoracic outlet syndrome,
a condition that has prematurely ended a number of big league careers.
13 (tie). Pittsburgh Pirates (2.9 WAR)
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| Felipe Rivero should continue to thrive in the closer role for a rebuilding Pittsburgh ball club. |
While the Pirates bullpen may lack some of the more familiar names for Pittsburgh fans from the past couple years (Tony Watson and Jared Hughes are off to the Giants and Reds respectively), the Bucs bullpen will be anchored by 2018 All-Star (calling it here, folks!) Felipe Rivero. Since his 2016 trade from the Washington Nationals, Felipe Rivero has developed into one of the game's best left handed relief options, putting together a tidy 2.10 ERA over 101 appearances. Riding a fastball that averaged over 98 MPH in 2017, Rivero limited opponents to a .170 batting average with only 10 of the 47 hits he allowed going for extra bases. He will be joined by newcomer Michael Feliz who, despite a high 5.63 ERA in 2017, has tremendous upside due to his ability to induce strikeouts (172 K's in 121.0 innings over his big league career). Former Giant George Kontos should also provide some quality relief for the Bucs in 2018.
13 (tie). Boston Red Sox (2.9 WAR)
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| Per Steamerprojections.com, Sox closer Craig Kimbrel is predicted to lead all of MLB relievers in WAR in 2018. |
Any discussion of the Red Sox bullpen has to start with their All-Star closer, Craig Kimbrel. Since entering the league in 2010, Kimbrel has
averaged a 1.80 ERA, 41 saves, and 110 strikeouts per season (162 games). He is legitimately
one of the best relievers of all time and, if he can keep his pace up for five more seasons, should be a first ballot Hall of Famer. For Boston, though, getting leads to Kimbrel may be a bit of a challenge.
Despite his penchant for throwing high and tight on opposing batters, Matt Barnes is projected to put up slightly above average numbers as an innings-eaters out of the 'pen. Ditto for Heath Hembree. Where things get a little wonky for the Sox (and for Steamerprojections) is relievers Joe Kelly and Carson Smith. While I can buy that Carson Smith will have a bounce back season as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery (he performed well in his late season audition for the Sox in 2017 and he has a track record of success), I feel like relievers can experience some road bumps as they back from this type of surgery. As for Joe Kelly, well,
while he doesn't lack in confidence, I'm not sure that he will put up the 3.58 ERA that Steamers has projected for him (prior to 2017, his career ERA in the AL was just a shade under 5.00).
11 (tie). Arizona Diamondbacks (3.2 WAR)
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| Archie Bradley's transition from starter to reliever helped spark the Diamondbacks to their first postseason appearance in six years in 2017. |
With a collective WAR of 3.2, the Arizona Diamondbacks come in tied for eleventh for the best bullpen in the MLB.
While Archie Bradley's beard could probably account for roughly twenty-five innings of lights out relief on its own, Steamer has his arm churning out 65 innings of fantastic baseball in 2018. Whatever role he appears in, Bradley is a stud who will perform at a high level for the Rattlers. Though the Diamondbacks still haven't officially named a closer for the 2018 season, expect to see free agent Brad Boxberger and Japanese import Yoshihisa Hirano take the mound in the ninth inning. Boxberger is just a few seasons removed from leading the league in saves and has always been able to rack up strikeouts (career K/9 rate of 11.6). Hirano actually didn't have a Steamer projection, but he should be a solid addition to Arizona's 'pen as he put up a 3.10 ERA over 549 appearances in his JPPL (Japanese Pacific League) career.
11 (tie). Colorado Rockies (3.2 WAR)
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| Jake McGee will be joined by Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw in forming one of the league's better bullpens in 2018. |
As we approach the top tier of bullpens in the majors, you'll begin to notice a trend. That is, the top bullpens in baseball are defined by their depth and the quality of said depth. The Colorado Rockies, ranked 11th with a projected WAR of 3.2, feature a plethora of power arms in the form of Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw. Davis replaces 2017 All-Star Greg Holland,
who amazingly still hasn't found a job for 2018, and he should have no problem duplicating, if not improving upon, the numbers put up by Holland last season. Davis has been one of the league's best relievers since 2014, putting up three sub-2.00 ERA seasons over the past four seasons. Newcomer Bryan Shaw is an absolute workhorse (he appeared in 378 games over 5 seasons in Cleveland) who should bridge the gap from Colorado's talented young starting staff to Davis at the back end of the 'pen. Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino are two more hard throwers who should contribute at the tail end of the bullpen. Lastly, despite struggling in 2017, Mike Dunn has shown that he is capable of being a solid left handed option for managers to call on (his 4.47 ERA last year was over half a run higher than his career average).
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