The $100 Million Dollar Arms: Arguments For and Against Big Money Contracts

Yu Darvish was one of the few players to reap the rewards of MLB free agency during the 2017 off-season.

On February 13th, free agent hurler Yu Darvish inked a six year deal for $126.0 million. As I sat in my living room and contemplated what it would be like to be able to Scrooge McDuck my way into money every night before going to bed, another thought popped into my head. What exactly does $100.0 million buy you in baseball nowadays? Specifically, how have all the $100.0 million contracts given to pitchers worked out for their respective teams? These mega-contracts have rarely worked out well for position players in the MLB. The Yankees and Phillies can attest to this as they were forced to deal with the over bloated contracts of Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard respectively years after their expiration dates. In regard to pitcher contracts, my findings were, well, both reassuring and troubling for Cubs fans.

To date, there have been twenty-one $100.0 million contracts given to pitchers in MLB history. They are as follows:

• David Price (Boston Red Sox), 7 years/$217.0 mil.
• Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers),7 years/$215.0 mil.
• Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals), 7 years/$210.0 mil.
• Zack Greinke (Arizona Diamondbacks), 6 years/$210.0 mil.
• Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers), 7 years/$180.0 mil.
• Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners), 7 years/$175.0 mil.
• Steven Strasburg (Washington Nationals), 7 years/$175.0 mil.
• CC Sabathia (New York Yankees), 7 years/$161.0 mil.
• Masahiro Tanaka (New York Yankees), 7 years/$155.0 mil.
• Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs), 6 years/$155.0 mil.
• Zack Greinke (Los Angeles Dodgers), 6 years/$147.0 mil.
• Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies), 6 years/$144.0 mil.
• Johan Santana (New York Mets), 6 years/$137.5 mil.
• Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants), 6 years/$130.0 mil.
• Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants), 7 years/$126.0 mil.
• Mike Hampton (Colorado Rockies), 8 years/$121.0 mil.
• Cliff Lee (Philadelphia Phillies), 5 years/$120.0 mil.
• Jordan Zimmerman (Detroit Tigers), 5 years/$110.0 mil.
• Kevin Brown (Los Angeles Dodgers), 7 years/$105.0 mil.
• Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds), 6 years/$105.0 mil.
• Matt Cain (San Francisco Giants), 6 years/$127.5 mil.
• Yu Darvish (Chicago Cubs), 6 years/$126.0 mil.

As I looked at this list, a few things jumped out at me. There are only six American League pitchers on this list. The NL West is particularly charitable to the wallets of pitchers (particularly the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants). How did Homer Bailey finagle his way into a $100.0 million deal? To determine the worth of each pitcher, I decided to rank them on an A-F scale. I'd like to think that my ranking isn't totally arbitrary as I'll try to hedge my rankings in statistics  rather than solely on personal opinion.

The F's

Lefty sinker-baller Mike Hampton parlayed a 15-10 record and a NLCS MVP into one of the largest contracts in sports history.

Oh, Mike Hampton. I had almost forgotten about you. Before Shohei Ohtani, before Madison Bumgarner, there was another slugging pitcher who struck fear into the hearts of his opponents both on the mound and at the plate. Mike Hampton's 8 year/$121.0 million contract is highlighted by the fact that he hit .291 with 7 (!) home runs in just 79 at-bats during the 2001 season. Over the course of 162 games and roughly 550 at-bats, Hampton would've been on pace to hit almost fifty home runs.  Unfortunately, the Rockies were paying Hampton to be the ace of their staff and the results were just abysmal. In 2001, Hampton 14-13 with a 5.41 ERA while giving up 31 home runs (that Colorado air really flattens out sinkers). Hampton's 2002 encore was even worse as he put together a 7-15 season with a 6.15 ERA over 178.2 horrendous innings. Yikes! After the 2002 season, Hampton was traded to the Florida Marlins who subsequently flipped him to the Atlanta Braves two days later where he essentially played out the remainder of his MLB career. Needless to say, the Colorado Rockies haven't tried luring any top-of-the-line starters with mega-money to Denver since then.

Homer Bailey parlayed two no-hitters into a 7 year/$105.0 million deal.

Quite frankly, I had no idea that Homer Bailey had a $100.0 million contract. Since signing that deal prior to the 2014 season, the oft-injured righty has gone 17-18 with a cumulative 5.59 ERA for a rebuilding Cincinnati ballclub. Unless he can turn it around this season and next, you have to imagine that the Reds will opt-out of the final year of Bailey's contract in 2020.

Though his career was cut short by injury, Johan Santana's name will forever be implanted in Met's history as he twirled the first no-hitter in franchise history on June 1st, 2012.

From 2003-2008, Johan Santana was the best pitcher in major league baseball. Santana won two Cy Young Awards and led the league in strikeouts three times during his tenure with the Minnesota Twins. When the New York Mets signed Santana to a 6 year/$137.5 million deal, they must've imagined that they were launching themselves into World Series contention. Instead, Santana's career faltered in a big way as he gutted his way through three injury-plagued seasons before needing shoulder surgery that cost him his 2011 season. After returning to the team in 2012 and throwing a historic no-hitter vs. the St. Louis Cardinals, Santana only managed to pitch in ten more games before having his season shut down again due to injury. After missing the entire 2013 season, the New York Mets bought out the final year of Santana's contract and he would never pitch in the major leagues again.

Fun Kevin Brown Fact of the Day: Did you know that the New York Yankees traded Brandon Weeden of Cleveland Browns Hall of Shame to the Dodgers for the hard throwing righty in 2004?

MLB's first $100.0 million man, Kevin Brown is an interesting case as the first few years of his Dodger's tenure were a success. From 1999-2001, Kevin Brown turned in a 41-19 record with an ERA of 2.74. However, injuries began taking their toll on the hard throwing hurler as he only managed to toe the rubber for 17 games (10 starts) in 2002. After a successful bounce-back campaign in 2003, Brown was traded to the Yankees where his career ended after two disappointing seasons (highlighted by his punching a wall in 2004 and injuring his hand). While the results weren't necessarily terrible during his tenure with the Dodgers, the fact that a cloud of potential steroid use hangs over Brown's accomplishments will forever tarnish his reputation.

Jordan Zimmermann has struggled mightily since his move from the nation's capital to the Motor City.

This one hurts as I have always been a huge Jordan Zimmermann fan as his pitching was instrumental in turning the Washington Nationals from NL East cellar-dweller to perennial World Series contenders. However, Zimmermann has just been awful since signing a 5 year/$110.0 deal with the Detroit Tigers in 2016. Zimmermann was particularly bad in 2017, going 8-13 with a 6.08 ERA while allowing 255 base runners in just 160.0 innings. Things aren't looking much better for 2018 as Zimmermann currently sports a 6.75 ERA through three spring training starts. If it weren't for the hefty contract obligations, Zimmermann would undoubtedly be out of a job. Here is to hoping the righty can figure things out soon as the Tigers will need him to produce if they want to be remotely relevant moving forward.

Why, Matt Cain? WHY????

Amazing profile picture aside, Cain largely disappointed after signing a 6 year/$127.5 million deal in 2012. The Giants were quickly rewarded for their investment as Cain went 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA to go along with a career high 193 strikeouts while leading the Giants to a World Series Championship in the first year of his deal. However, Cain would never perform at that level again as he would subsequently post an ERA over 4.00 for the remaining five years of the deal, going 19-40 in the process. That being said, Cain is hardly the only highly paid Giants hurler to disappoint...

The D's

Lefty Cliff Lee's return to Philadelphia ended prematurely due to injury.

Like Kevin Brown before him, Cliff Lee proved doubters wrong over the first few years of his 5 year/$120.0 million deal. Cliff Lee was the 1B to Roy Halladay's 1A on the Phillies' staff during the 2011 season, going 17-8 with a 2.40 ERA and a majors leading six shutouts. 2012 and 2013 were more of the same as while the wins weren't always there for the crafty lefty, the statistics supported his claim to be one of the best in the majors. However, elbow discomfort shut him down after only thirteen starts in 2014 and he would never throw another pitch in the majors (or, for that matter, in professional baseball, period) as he would need to undergo career ending surgery on a torn flexor tendon. Like Johan Santana before him, injuries would cut short the career of Cliff Lee and leave the Phillies reeling under the burden of his contract (though, they were able to buy out the final year of his contract).

Barry Zito was once in a JAG episode where he starred as a Navy officer who was also a pitcher...I kid you not.

If you're a San Francisco Giants fan, I apologize for bringing this one up because I'm sure it's painful. Hey, if it makes you feel better, it hurts for me too because the fact that Barry Zito somehow snookered his way into a 7 year/$126.0 million deal just makes my head hurt. Zito was essentially a .500 pitcher during his tenure with the Oakland A's aside from a phenomenal 2002 season that saw him go 23-5 and win the American League Cy Young Award. That didn't stop the Giants from dishing out ace-level money for the soft tossing lefty. In his seven years with San Francisco, Zito turned in one winning season, going 63-80 over the course of the contract. The only reason that Zito doesn't receive an F grade is that he did help lead the Giants to a World Series Championship in 2012 and the fact that he started the non-profit Strikeouts for Troops. And also because he is reportedly the one who gave Pablo Sandoval the nickname "Kung Fu Panda." Thank you for that, Barry, thank you.

The C's

Hair game aside, early results have been mixed for the Dominican-born righty.

Oh, San Francisco. Will you never learn? Maybe long-term deals worth millions and millions of dollars aren't meant for you. Two years into his 6 year/$130.0 million deal, it's hard to say what to expect from the righty moving forward. In 2016, Cueto went 18-5 with a 2.79 ERA and led the Giants to a 87-75 record. In 2017, Cueto struggled through injuries on his way to a 8-8 record with a 4.52 ERA while the Giants slumped to a measly 64-98 record. Perhaps Cueto's 2017 performance can be chalked up to injury (he did battle his way through both blister and forearm issues over the course of the season). Nevertheless, the Giants will need him to rebound and perform at a high level if they hope to compete. If he doesn't bounce back, Cueto will go down with Barry Zito and Matt Cain as another highly paid Giants pitcher who didn't pan out.

It's hard to believe that the King is only 32 years old as he enters his fourteenth MLB season.

King Felix has had a rough go at it lately. Since signing a 7 year/$175.0 million deal in 2013, Hernandez has steadily seen his performance slip over the past few years, including an injury-shortened 2017 season that saw him go 6-5 across sixteen starts. Granted, the big righty is only a few years removed from a 18-9 season that saw him spin 201.2 innings, but his fastball is clocking in at just 90.5 MPH and it's hard to believe that he'll compete at an elite level again. If he can avoid injuries and continue re-inventing himself as a pitcher, it's conceivable that Hernandez can be a competent option for the Mariners moving forward. That is looking like a big "if", though.

CC Sabathia has overcome a crippling addiction to Captain Crunch to reinvent himself on the mound.

After finishing third in the AL East with a 89-73 record in 2008, the New York Yankees brought in CC Sabathia on a 7 year/$161.0 million deal to anchor their rotation. The burly lefty was coming off a historic second half with the Milwaukee Brewers that saw him put up 4.9 WAR in just seventeen starts. CC rewarded the Yankees with a 19-8 record and helped lead the Bronx Bombers to a World Series Title (he also won ALCS MVP along the way). Sabathia was fantastic for the subsequent three years of his contract, going 55-21 and earning three straight All-Star selections. However, Father Time caught up to Sabathia towards the second half of his contract and he largely struggled from 2013-2016. The primary culprit behind Sabathia's decline was a loss of over three miles-per-hour on his fastball. However, Sabathia matured greatly as a pitcher last season, moving away from his four-seam fastball and relying heavily on a diet of cut-fastballs and sliders. On the heels of a 14-5 season, the Yankees brought back the hefty lefty on a 1 year/$10.0 million deal.

The B's

Masahiro Tanaka's stellar rookie season ended early due to a partially torn UCL that he has yet to get surgically repaired.

Masahiro Tanaka has overcome early bouts with injuries to emerge as one of the premier strikeout artists in the MLB. Utilizing a diving split-fingered fastball, Tanaka punched out 194 batters last year versus just 41 walks across 178.1 innings. While his ERA wasn't pretty (4.74), Tanaka has a career record of 52-28 through the first four seasons of his 7 year/$155.0 million deal. Provided that he can get his home run rate under control (it jumped from 1.0 to 1.8 per 9 innings) and maintain his health, Tanaka should continue to be worth every cent of his contract. 

Zack Greinke is owner of two the biggest contracts for a pitcher in MLB history.

The jury is still out on how Arizona's 6 year/$210.0 million deal with Zack Greinke will hold up. After a rough debut season in Arizona that saw him post a 4.37 ERA and have to visit the 15-day DL with a strained left oblique, Greinke rebounded with a fantastic 17-7 record in 2017. That being said, Greinke is currently muddling his way through spring training right now behind a fastball that is reportedly trundling across home plate in the mid-80's. While this has been a trend that we've seen from him in the past, one can't help but be at least slightly concerned about the state of the righty's arm. If injuries strike again, Greinke's deal would greatly restrict the financial flexibility of the Diamondbacks moving forward.

David Price needs to bounce back in 2018 if he wants to have a long-term career in Boston.

As is the case with Zack Greinke, the 2018 season will go a long way in determining the worth of David Price's 7 year/$217.0 million deal. A year after going 17-9 in his Red Sox debut season, Price muddled his way through an injury-marred 2017 that also saw him butt heads with Red Sox legend Dennis Eckersley after the Hall of Famer criticized the rehabbing Eduardo Rodriguez. While Price earned the support of his teammates in the altercation, his unapologetic manner towards the Red Sox legend have left some fans disgruntled over his attitude. Price will need to prove his worth this upcoming season if he wants to win fans back over to his side and, according to him, he is ready to do just that.

The A's

Was there any doubt about where Clayton Kershaw would fall in these rankings?

You had to have known that he would be here. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball at the moment and it looks like he is going to hold onto that title for a while still. The five-time ERA champion of MLB already has three Cy Young Awards under his belt and has finished as the runner-up twice. Just once in his career has Kershaw posted an ERA over 3.00 (that being the 4.26 in his rookie season in 2008). There aren't many words in the English language that can adequately describe Kershaw's reign over MLB. Needless to say, he is worth every penny of the 7 year/$215.0 million deal he signed with the Dodgers prior to the '14 season.

Can Max Scherzer make it back-to-back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2018?

Since signing a 7 year/$210.0 million deal with the Washington Nationals in 2015, Max Scherzer has been simply amazing, going 50-25 across three seasons with back-to-back Cy Young Awards to his name. Though sports commentators throw this title around a little too often, there really is no better way to describe Scherzer than as a "gamer". He snarls with every pitch, daring the batting to step into the box to face him. I didn't fully appreciate how intense Max Scherzer was until this past May in a game vs. the Phillies. After taking a line drive off the knee cap, Scherzer didn't just get back up. He stayed in the game and subsequently struck out the side the following inning...on nine pitches (!). It was a jaw-dropping moment for any baseball fan. However, all this being said, I still find myself worrying about Scherzer's long term health. Should he get injured, Scherzer's ranking would undoubtedly drop as the Nationals do have a tremendous amount of money tied up in his contract.

Justin Verlander's storied Detroit chapter of his career came to a close last summer as he was traded to the Houston Astros.

Houston Astro hero Justin Verlander earned a monster 7 year/$180.0 million contract in 2013 after he won both the MVP and Cy Young Award in 2011 and then finished runner-up in 2012. Aside from a speed bump in 2014 (15-12 with a 4.54 ERA) and an injury-shortened 2015, Verlander has continued to pitch at an extremely high level. Verlander seemingly found a way to reverse the aging process as his fastball averaged 1.7 MPH faster in 2017 than it did in 2016. Whatever black magic or voodoo he used to accomplish this is none of my concern; the only thing that I'm interested in is whether the tall righty can continue to rack up K's and put wins in the books for the 'Stros. My guess is that he will do just that.

Jon Lester helped lead the Chicago Cubs to their first World Series Championship in 108 years.

Jon Lester was going to get an A ranking almost automatically due to his role in helping get the Chicago Cubs their first World Series Championship since 1908 in 2016. While the lefty's struggles with fielding his position and throwing to first base are well documented, he has proven to be worth the 6 year/$155.0 million investment the Cubs made in him in 2015. Since signing with the Cubs, Lester has gone 43-25 across nearly six hundred innings. While his 2017 season was a bit of a downer for the veteran lefty, Lester will forever be accepted by Cub's fans for his work during their 2016 run to the championship (3-1 record over 6 games (5 starts) with a 2.02 ERA).

Despite being shut down early in the 2012 season, Strasburg has been a dominant force in the nation's capital.

When Stephen Strasburg burst onto the major league scene in 2010 with a fourteen strikeout debut, Washington fans knew that good times were in the forecast for their hometown team. Though Strasburg's career took a detour for much of the 2011 season (he was sidelined with a torn UCL from August 2010-August 2011), the big righty from San Diego, California has been a stalwart in Washington's rotation ever since his return. Since signing a 7 year/$175.0 million deal with the team in 2016, Strasburg has gone 30-8 with 387 strikeouts. Provided that he can maintain his health over the next few years, the Nationals are in the enviable position where their top dollars are earning them the peak performance of an elite athlete's career.

Cole Hamels helped lead the Texas Rangers to the  ALDS in 2015 after a mid-season trade from Philadelphia.

Cole Hamels inked a 6 year/$144.0 million deal midway through the 2012 season and he has been one of the most consistent lefty starters in the majors ever since. Hamels would finish 2012 with career highs in wins (17) and strikeouts (216) and, since signing that extension, Hamels has averaged just over 12 wins and 200 innings per season. While Hamels' 2017 season was not the best of his career by any stretch, he has still been well worth the deal that he signed in 2012 for both his former and current team (Philadelphia netted two starters in catcher Jorge Alfaro and outfielder Nick Williams as well as #2 starter Jerrod Eickhoff in the exchange).

Zack Greinke rounds out our list as one of the best pitcher mega-deals in MLB history.

Once again, Zack Greinke makes this list. However, his 6 year/$147.0 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers earns a better grade than his current contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks as his performance in Dodger Blue was superlative. While he opted out after the first three years of his deal, the Dodgers gleaned the peak years of Greinke's career from 2013-2015, a stretch in which the talented hurler went 51-15 with a 2.30 ERA. Greinke finished in the top-10 of Cy Young voting during each of those three seasons, highlighted by a phenomenal 2015 season in which he went 19-3 with a microscopic 1.66 ERA. To put it simply, the Dodgers made good on the $70.0 million that they paid Greinke during that time period.

What will our opinions of Yu Darvish's 6 year/$126.0 million deal be in a few years?

So where does Yu Darvish fit into this equation? By my estimation, seven mega-deals have resulted in fantastic results while five have gone terribly. Fifty-fifty odds are not what you want to hear on the heels of a $100 million investment. The lean right-hander was reportedly clocked in at 95 MPH during his Cubs debut in spring training, so it would seem that he is poised to have a good season on the north side of Chicago. However, Dodgers fans undoubtedly remember all too well his performance in Game 7 of last year's World Series (5 runs allowed in just 1.2 innings). For his career, Darvish has largely struggled in the postseason, going 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA with 8 home runs allowed in just 26.1 innings. Furthermore, given Darvish's age (31 at the time of his signing), the Cubs will be relying on him to perform at an elite level into his mid-to-late thirties, a risky proposition to say the least. That being said, Darvish looked to be turning the corner last year early in the post-season, going 2-0 in the NLDS and NLCS before the debacle that was his World Series. Only time will tell whether or not the Cubs' investment in Darvish was wise or ill-advised.

All images are courtesy of ESPN.com and MLB.com.