It's All in the Pen: Ranking the Bullpens (#30 - #21)

This article will be part one of a three part series with parts two and three coming out on Sunday (March 25th) and Monday (March 26th) respectively.

With the 2018 season rapidly approaching (just five days to go!), I decided to do a breakdown of all thirty bullpens in the majors. The game of baseball is rapidly changing; where starting pitchers were once expected to compete deep into the seventh or eighth inning, now teams are content with six innings out of their starting arms before turning the game over to the 'pen. With a third of the game left to go, the need for quality relief arms has increased exponentially in the past few years. Just look at last year's World Series: on average, Dodger's starting pitchers went just a hair over four innings per outing. That left manager Dave Roberts with over half of the game to complete! Now, the World Series is a far-cry from the regular season. With his team on the brink of elimination, there was no tomorrow for Roberts' crew and he had to be quick in pulling the plug on his starter at the first sign of trouble. While teams may be more likely to give their starters more leeway to work their way out of trouble in the regular season, the margin for error is still razor thin. With the addition of the second Wild Card spot a few years ago, teams on the edge of postseason contention simply can't afford to give games away if they hope to compete into October. Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers missed out on their first postseason trip since 2008 by one game, getting edged out for the second NL Wild Card spot by the 87-75 Colorado Rockies. The Brewer's bullpen was responsible for coughing up the lead 25 times over the course of the season. How different things could've been for the Brew Crew had they been able to nail down just two or three more of those opportunities...

To come up with these rankings, I decided to calculate the total WAR (wins above replacement) of the primary expected contributors to their respective clubs. WAR is a stat that takes offensive, defensive, and pitching stats into account. Essentially, WAR calculates how a player would compare to a player called up from AAA (essentially, a completely average ball player). The higher the WAR number, the more valuable the player. For example, in 2017, Clayton Kershaw, arguably the game's best pitcher, was worth 4.9 WAR (essentially, Kershaw earned the Dodgers five more wins than they would've had if they replaced him with a pitcher from their AAA team). Conversely, Ubaldo Jimenez, arguably one of the game's worst pitchers, was worth -1.4 WAR (Jimenez cost his team almost one and a half games in the standings!). Theoretically, Baltimore would've been better off calling up somebody from AAA to take his spot last year than they were trotting him out every fifth day (unfortunately, Baltimore's minor league system isn't exactly flush with MLB-caliber starters).

To enter into my calculation, a player had to participate in at least ten games with 80% of his appearances coming in relief. In taking out some of these "swing arms" (pitchers expected to both start and relieve over the course of the season), I hoped to get a clear image of what teams could expect from the bullpens moving forwards.

Lastly, the WAR projections are from Steamprojections.com. Honestly, I think that Steamer is a little hit-or-miss with its projections. That being said, while the WAR values may be a little iffy, I do believe that after adding it all up, the projections do give me the correct ranking order for all thirty major league teams.

So, without further ado, here are the bottom ten teams in the bullpen rankings for the 2018 season.

30. The Detroit Tigers (0.5 WAR)

There probably won't be many leads to preserve for closer Shane Greene in the 2018 season.

With a combined projected WAR of just 0.5, the rebuilding Detroit Tigers are rightfully so at the bottom of this list. Looking around, there really isn't much to be excited about from this group. Failed starter turned reliever Shane Greene is really the lone bright spot in this otherwise dull affair. He was particularly solid after taking over at closer after the Justin Wilson trade last summer, going 9-for-10 in save opportunities down the stretch. Still, there is more bad than good to this bullpen. Aside from Greene, there is only one pitcher projected to appear in more than 55 games: Alex Wilson. Per Fangraphs, Alex Wilson is projected to put up a 4.68 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP across 65 games. While I think he is better than that (he has been worth 4.0 WAR over the past three seasons combined) , it's tough to predict how he will perform in 2018. Wilson struggled to limit soft contact last year (20.0%) while seeing his hard contact spike to 36.0%. Needless to say, hitters weren't being fooled by the hard throwing righty and were teeing off on him when they made contact (thus far in camp, Wilson has done little to show that he is righting the proverbial ship). The Tigers are in a full blown rebuild so whatever quality comes out of their bullpen is likely to be traded by the July 31st deadline.

28 (tie). Kansas City Royals (1.1 WAR)

Kelvin Herrera will look to bounce back after a trying season that saw him demoted from his closer role last September.

It's hard to believe that it was only a few seasons ago that the Royals were trotting out the likes of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera to close out games. This trio of arms was instrumental in the Royals back-to-back World Series runs in 2014 and 2015 (culminating in the 2015 title over the New York Mets). Times have changed, however, and Herrera is the only returning member of that great bullpen from a few years back and he'll be looking to rebound from a tough 2017 season that saw him put up a 4.25 ERA and the highest WHIP of his career to date (1.35). Outside of Herrera, the Royals will rely on Brandon Maurer (8.10 ERA in 26 games for the Royals after a mid-season trade from the Padres), Wily Peralta (owner of a 7.85 ERA in 19 games for the Brewers in 2017), and Brian Flynn (who appeared in 1 game for the Royals last year while putting up a 5.40 ERA for their AAA affiliate, the Omaha Storm Chasers) to provide for the bulk of their relief work. Ouch!

28 (tie). Tampa Bay Rays (1.1 WAR)

Alex Colome is one of the lone bright spots on a rebuilding Rays team. 

With a combined WAR value of 1.1, the Rays check in tied for twenty-eighth on this list. Alex Colome is the clear-cut leader in the bullpen. With 84 saves over the past two seasons (including a MLB leading 47 saves in 2017), Colome locks down at least one inning for the Rays. Bridging the gap between the starter and Colome looks to be a challenge, though, as the Rays will be relying heavily on some young arms to fill the void. Daniel Hudson and Sergio Romo are two veterans who have extensive track-records, but they also present their own share of question marks. On the whole, Romo's 2017 looked pretty solid at first glance. However, Romo seemingly hit the wall during his thirty game pit stop with the Los Angeles Dodgers to start the season, going 1-1 with a 6.12 ERA with seven home runs allowed in just 25.0 innings. Although he rebounded after a mid-season trade to the Rays (he put up a 1.12 ERA over twenty-five appearances), it's unlikely that he'll keep up that pace for the coming season. Hudson has been a below average reliever since his transition from a starter after injuries (since 2015, Hudson has put up -1.0 WAR over 205 appearances). The biggest hurdle for the Rays to overcome is their decision to only keep four starters to start the season, forcing a fifth day bullpen turn when needed. While there is some promise in their young arms, the true colors of the Ray's bullpen will be either exposed or validated early on in the 2018 season.

26 (tie). The Chicago White Sox (1.3 WAR)

Longtime southsider Nate Jones is expected to split closing duties early on with newcomer Joakim Soria.

Like a number of the other teams at the bottom of these rankings, the Chicago White Sox are in the midst of an extensive rebuild and, as such, building a strong bullpen was hardly a priority for management. While he will be sharing closing duties to start the season, the Sox are likely hoping that newcomer Joakim Soria puts together a tidy first half of the season that they can parlay into a mid-season deadline deal (ditto for Nate Jones and Luis Avilan). Aside from those three arms, Steamerprojections.com has Juan Minaya (the Sox's closer last year after they dealt David Robertson) spinning 65 innings of slightly below average pitching in 2018. Former Phillie closer Jeanmar Gomez was recently assigned to minor league camp as he battles his way through injury. If he can find a way back to the majors, expect to see him contribute at some point during 2018.

26 (tie). Toronto Blue Jays (1.3 WAR)

Closer Roberto Osuna is projected to account for almost a full WAR by himself.

Per Steamerprojections, Roberto Osuna is projected to put together a 31 save season with a 75-18 K-to-BB ratio. Honestly, I'd say those projections are a floor for the talented righty out of Sinaloa, Mexico as he has accumulated 95 saves through three seasons to start his career. Despite blowing ten saves in 2017, he still finished with a respectable 3.38 ERA over 64 innings. Aside from Osuna, the Jays have put together a, hmmm, lets say well-traveled bullpen, adding free agents John Axord, Seung Hwan-Oh, and Tyler Clippard during the off-season. Steamer is not high on this trio at all (they're projected to earn -0.1 WAR for the season combined), but I actually like the Jay's savvy signing of Clippard to a minor league deal. Though he isn't the pitcher he once was, I still expect him to put up 65 innings of solid relief with roughly a strikeout per inning and an ERA in the mid-3's. Swingman Joe Biagini could also play a role in relief as there doesn't seem to be a place for him in the starting rotation after the signing of Jaime Garcia.

25. Oakland Athletics (1.6 WAR)

Blake Treinen enters 2018 as the de facto closer for the A's.

With a projected WAR of 1.6, the Oakland A's check in ranked twenty-fifth out of the thirty big league clubs. The ever under-valued Yusmeiro Petit will probably outperform the 0.2 WAR projection that Steamer gives him. Across sixty appearances in 2017, the Venezualan born righty spun a 5-2 record over 91.1 innings with a remarkable 101-18 K-to-BB ratio. Yes, you read that right: Yusmeiro Petit's K-to-BB ratio of 5.61 was better than that of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Jacob deGrom! Ain't baseball great?!? On a serious note, why Yusmeiro Petit finds himself bouncing around year after year is beyond me. The man is a stud who can pitch in a number of roles and teams would be wise to lock him up for more than just a single season. Santiago Casilla is still chuggin' along despite diminishing results (his 4.27 ERA was his highest since 2009). Blake Treinen is a bit of a wildcard in the A's bullpen. Slated in to be the closer to start the season, Treinen has the potential to be a front of the line fireman (see his 2016 season with the Nationals and his thirty five game stint with the A's in 2017). On the other hand, he can also be downright terrible, as evidenced by the early season results he posted with the Nats last year which led to his demotion from the closer role and eventual exodus from DC. For what it's worth, he has looked solid through spring training and he seems to be on the path for prolonged success in the big leagues.

24. Texas Rangers (1.7 WAR)

The Matt Bush starter experiment yielded bleak results and he'll be headed back to the 'pen for 2018.

With a collective bullpen WAR of 1.7, the Texas Rangers find themselves sandwiched between two other AL West teams. Alex Claudio isn't the flashiest pitcher out there, but he is a solid pitcher who gets the job done despite a fastball that probably wouldn't be able to break a pane of glass (lifetime average of 86.6 MPH). For whatever reason, the Rangers are obsessed with trying to convert relievers into starters (Alexi Ogando in 2011, Neftali Feliz in 2012, Tanner Scheppers in 2014) and the results are always the same: Failure (note the capital 'F'). Matt Bush didn't pan out as a starter during spring training, failing to make it through three innings in any of his three starts. That being said, he is an above average bullpen arm (despite a dip in his performance in 2017) that is capable of shutting down opponents in the late innings. Despite some moderate fan excitement at seeing "the Freak" come running out of the bullpen, Steamer is really not a fan of the Ranger's one-year flyer on two-time former Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (they have him giving up nine home runs in just 55 innings). Whoever is making the projections over there probably hasn't forgotten Lincecum's penchant for bailing out on pitches he doesn't want to throw...

23. Los Angeles Angels (1.8 WAR)

Former Cub Blake Parker burst back onto the scene in 2017 with a 2.54 ERA over 67.1 innings.

Coming in ahead of the Oakland A's and Texas Rangers is another AL West team in the form of the Los Angeles Angels. Despite lacking a true ninth-inning fireman (for you Orioles' fans, Jim Johnson is NOT a true closer), the Angel's bullpen will be headed by Blake Parker and Cam Bedrosian who are both projected to put up 0.5+ WAR seasons. That being said, I'm a little skeptical in both of those cases. Blake Parker has two excellent seasons under his belt (2013 with the Cubs and 2017 with the Angels), but has been below average else wise throughout his career. Cam Bedrosian represents the anti-Tim Lincecum as Steamer has him putting up 25 saves on the back of a 3.72 ERA in 2018. Personally, I don't buy that hype as Bedrosian has yet to appear more than forty-eight times in a season and is coming off a -0.3 WAR season in 2017. Is Bedrosian the pitcher who put up a 1.12 ERA in 2016 or is he the pitcher who has put up a cumulative 5.45 ERA for the rest of his career? Only time will tell.

22. Miami Marlins (2.0 WAR)

Finally, someone who throws the right way!

As a former submarine pitcher myself, I have a soft stop for soft-tossing righties who throw from the land down under. There is something just fun about watching batters flail away miserably at pitches that probably wouldn't break the speed limit on I-95. Brad Ziegler is your atypical crafty righty (his fastball meandered over home plate at 83.5 MPH while his change-up sashayed in at 76.2 MPH), but batters continue to be fooled by his unusual arm slot. Aside from a horrendous month and a half stretch that saw him put up a 11.18 ERA and end up on the DL, Ziegler turned in a 1.49 ERA over the rest of the season. Barring injury, Ziegler is at least a serviceable option out of the 'pen. While Ziegler will start the season as the anointed closer, expect to see either Drew Steckenrider or Kyle Barraclough take over that role for the Fish at some point in 2018. Nothing puts a manager more at ease in the ninth inning than strikeouts and Steckenrider and Barraclough rack up K's as well as anyone in baseball (10.48 and 10.36 K-per-9 rates respectively).

21. Baltimore Orioles (2.1 WAR)

Set-up man Brad Brach has filled in for Zach Britton admirably in the past and he'll need to do so again in 2018.

It's odd to see Buck Showalter's group checking in among the bottom third of the league after their success in recent years, but the injury to Zach Britton had a bit of a domino effect for the O's. With Britton out for the foreseeable future, Brad Brach will fill in as the primary closer with Darren O'Day and Mychal Givens stepping in occasionally as well. After those three pitchers, however, things get a little dicey for the O's as they'll be relying on the likes of Donny Hart, Richard Bleier, and others to fill out the bullpen. Despite some positive results last year, it's hard to believe that any of the pitchers filling out the 'pen will contribute to this team's success. The biggest hurdler for the O's to jump is the fact that their starting rotation was simply gawwwwd-awful in 2017. A year after posting a collective 5.70 ERA with 159 home runs allowed across just 846.0 innings, the O's starting rotation has to get better. Doesn't it? I mean, even if they massively under-perform, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner have to be better than the duo they replace from 2017: Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley. If they aren't, Buck's crew is going to be really overworked in 2018 and, generally, when a bullpen is overworked, bad things happen.

All images are courtesy of MLB.com and statistics are courtesy of Fangraphs.com. Projected WAR values are courtesy of Steamerprojections.com.